SHAPING THE FUTURE HOW CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS CAN POWER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

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FIGURE 1: Across the region, shares of younger people are declining, as populations age Source: UN DESA 2015a. 4 Demographic changes in Asia-Pacific are taking place much faster than they did elsewhere years. The region now has the world’s largest number of people over age 60, at around 489 million. By 2050, population ageing will be well underway in many countries that currently have young populations. Another marked demographic shift involves urbanization. In the last 30 years, Asia-Pacific added more than a billion people to its cities— more than all other regions combined—and another billion will be added in the next 30 years. While the move to an urban majority took 210 years in Latin America and the Caribbean, and 150 years in Europe, countries such as China, Bhutan, Indonesia and Lao People’s Democratic Republic will make the same transition in about 60 years, and Asia-Pacific as a whole in about 95 years. Among Asia-Pacific countries, there is considerable variation in progress in the demographic transition. Countries are advanced in it if they have already reached their peak share of working-age people, and in the middle if the share is still rising but had surpassed at least half of its expected increase by 2015. Countries are on the cusp of transition if the share is not expected to peak until after 2060. Almost all of Asia-Pacific’s high-income countries and some of its upper-middle-income countries have reached advanced stages, while some of its lower-middle-income and low-income countries are in the initial stages (Figure 2). Advanced demographic transition countries are mostly located in East Asia and South-east Asia. Many have witnessed, or will do so soon, a notable decline in both the working-age and total population, and will experience rapid ageing in coming decades. In South Asia, where transition is well underway, the proportions of young and working-age populations are growing rapidly, and almost all countries will have low or declining shares of young and old dependents over the next few decades. Most countries at the start of transition are small island developing states in the Pacific, where rapid population growth will, at least for some time ahead, stall the advent of transition. HOW DO DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES ADVANCE HUMAN DEVELOPMENT? Demographic changes and human development are interrelated and influence each other, but this report mainly analyses how demographic changes impact human development (Figure 3). This occurs through a number of channels, starting with an increased number of people
FIGURE 2: Wealthier countries tend to be more advanced in their demographic transitions Source: UN DESA 2015a. in the workforce. The second channel involves rising income and savings, and the third greater productivity. A fourth channel entails improved human capabilities, built through investing in education and health. A fifth is increasing domestic demand, as people earn and spend more, which can feed further economic growth. Urbanization comprises a sixth channel. As more and more people flock to urban areas, they can find better health and educational services, and diverse opportunities for decent work. Demographic transition offers two potential dividends, which are roughly sequential. The first occurs when the labour force grows more rapidly than the dependent population. The equation is simple: more labour equals more economic output, assuming no significant drag from unemployment or underemployment. A second dividend unfolds when a larger number of workers is also more productive. This comes about in part through investments in human capabilities that, for instance, allow people to do more skilled jobs. Over time, they can then earn more, save more and acquire more assets such as homes, land and businesses. Some overlap may occur between the two dividends, and neither is automatic, with demographic transition merely opening a window of opportunity. While demographic transition is likely to occur in every country, accelerating its arrival and realizing the full scope of any potential dividend depend largely on policy choices to steer the process. If these choices are not made, or are made poorly, a historic opportunity for human development gains will be lost. In this regard, converting a demographic opportunity into a demographic dividend requires strategic policies and good governance. Patterns of public investment need to respond to demographic changes. Countries with a very youthful population need to invest more in schools, for example. Those with a large working-age population need Converting demographic opportunity into a demographic dividend requires strategic policies, long-term vision and good governance 5
Page 1 and 2: ASIA-PACIFIC HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPO
Page 3 and 4: ASIA-PACIFIC HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPO
Page 5 and 6: FOREWORD We live in times of great
Page 7 and 8: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Asia-Pacific H
Page 9 and 10: Table of Contents Foreword iii Pref
Page 11 and 12: 1.15 Population age-composition is
Page 13 and 14: Acronyms ADB Asian Development Bank
Page 15 and 16: Overview SHAPING THE FUTURE: HOW CH
Page 17: HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IN ASIA-PACIFIC:
Page 21 and 22: a strong emphasis on protecting wor
Page 23 and 24: could provide job matching assistan
Page 25 and 26: Asia-Pacific leave the workforce at
Page 27 and 28: WHAT’S AHEAD IN THIS REPORT This
Page 29: Chapter 1 HOW CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS
Page 32 and 33: sustainable, reaching everyone whil
Page 34 and 35: FIGURE 1.1: The Human Development I
Page 36 and 37: TABLE 1.1: Asia-Pacific still has l
Page 38 and 39: married couples to have children, a
Page 40 and 41: FIGURE 1.5: Population pyramids in
Page 42 and 43: FIGURE 1.8: The median age is high
Page 44 and 45: FIGURE 1.10: Disparities in fertili
Page 46 and 47: Improved overall human development
Page 48 and 49: TABLE 1.5: Countries in Asia-Pacifi
Page 50 and 51: “When relatively large generation
Page 52 and 53: 38 Having fewer dependents on worki
Page 54 and 55: 40 In developed Asia- Pacific, the
Page 56 and 57: TABLE 1.6: Demographic dividends fl
Page 58 and 59: 44
Page 61 and 62: 2. MORE PEOPLE AT WORK: THE FOUNDAT
Page 63 and 64: encouraged labour-intensive industr
Page 65 and 66: FIGURE 2.3: Peaks within subregions
Page 67 and 68: A DEMOGRAPHIC RETURN FOR HUMAN DEVE
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BOX 2.1: Women bear a larger burden
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FIGURE 2.8: Growth in labour produc
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WHAT’S BEEN LEARNED IN CHINA, JAP
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FIGURE 2.13: Japan is past its work
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FIGURE 2.15: Thailand still has tim
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make this a key aim of national dev
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investment climate, as well as enco
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TABLE 2.4: Shares of workers in the
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Even before leaving home, migrant w
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Promote health and safety at work:
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BOX 2.8: Malaysia transforms an ind
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of resilient infrastructure are joi
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Chapter 3 NURTURING CHILDREN, UNLOC
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Asia-Pacific is home to 1.7 billion
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Commendable progress in education m
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Quality primary education mitigates
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In most Asia-Pacific countries, sec
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Strong tertiary education is a buil
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FIGURE 3.3: Access to tertiary educ
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94 TABLE 3.9: Youth illiteracy has
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TABLE 3.11: Child mortality rates b
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BOX 3.7: Malnutrition and disabilit
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Despite social and economic progres
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FIGURE 3.8: The share of youth who
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104 Young migrants are highly vulne
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as an important challenge. But they
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TABLE 3.15: Some countries with lar
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Immunization saves children’s liv
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BOX 3.10: Germany’s vocational tr
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BOX 3.12: Partnering with youth in
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116
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4. AGEING SOCIETIES: NEW OPPORTUNIT
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FIGURE 4.1: Asia-Pacific is one of
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TABLE 4.1: East Asia is the oldest
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BOX 4.2: Responses to poverty among
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BOX 4.3: A plan of action for older
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FIGURE 4.9: Per capita health-care
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BOX 4.5: China moves towards univer
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TABLE 4.3: Social pensions are an i
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FIGURE 4.12: Pension replacement ra
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BOX 4.7: Increasing links between p
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cupy space in some public buildings
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ment bodies, encourage regular inte
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BOX 4.9: Ageing countries begin enc
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help coordinate the work of other g
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for older people. Many advanced cou
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action. Free public transport, and
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Chapter 5 TAPPING THE HUMAN DYNAMIS
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In the last 30 years, Asia-Pacific
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FIGURE 5.3: Even countries with few
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FIGURE 5.6: Most people will contin
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160 Social, cultural and economic i
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The benefits of urbanization have n
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BOX 5.2: Pioneering urban poverty r
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vehicles on the road. Beijing issue
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Municipal governments in Asia-Pacif
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TABLE 5.4: Revenue mobilization opt
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172 City governments need to have t
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Investing in essential infrastructu
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176 in East Asian cities, and occur
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BOX 5.9: The Republic of Korea emba
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180
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6. AN AGENDA FOR ACTION: SHAPING TH
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Development Report argues, decent w
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with ministries overseeing youth, e
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This is an urgent priority in a reg
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SUSTAINING HUMAN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
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plan automatically enrols people in
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BOX 6.3: Developing Delhi’s metro
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End Notes CHAPTER 1 1. UNFPA 2014b.
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63. WHO 2014b. 64. UNFPA 2012. 65.
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produces 40 percent of total econom
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206 The Asia Foundation. 2013. “T
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208 CODI (Community Organizations D
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210 Global Migration Group. 2014.
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212 Janwani. 2010. “Annual Report
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214 ———. 2012a. OECD Employme
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216 ———. 2011. “Follow-up t
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218 York. [www.unfpa.org/sites/defa
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———. 2012c. Malaysia Economic
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tables include the Caribbean countr
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224
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TABLE 2: Trends in the Human Develo
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TABLE 4: Gender Inequality Index 22
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TABLE 6: Trends in income poverty,
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TABLE 8: Fertility rate and crude d
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TABLE 10: Trends and share of child
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TABLE 12: Trends and share of young
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TABLE 14: Trends and share of older
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TABLE 16: Education indicators and
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TABLE 17: Health indicators 242
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TABLE 18: Employment and unemployme
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TABLE 19: International trade, fina
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ABOUT ASIA-PACIFIC HUMAN DEVELOPMEN
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