SHAPING THE FUTURE HOW CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS CAN POWER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

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ASIA-PACIFIC HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT Asia-Pacific has been witnessing dramatic shifts in its population. Since 1950, the share of children has consistently contracted, while the shares of working-age and elderly people have steadily risen. On the cover of this report, patterns in the balloon depict shifting shares from 1950 until 2100. Population dynamics and a period of demographic transition will transform the future of the region, with profound implications for human development. SHAPING THE FUTURE: HOW CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS CAN POWER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT The picture of a girl and a boy, a working-age woman and man, and an older woman and man convey that all people—including those with other gender identities—are inherently valuable and ought to be equal members of families and societies. Together, they represent how collaboration and interdependence can lead to greater mutual well-being. Ensuring equal rights and opportunities for all population groups will determine collective strength and resilience. Leveraging the capacity and creativity of different people will enable countries to reach higher levels of human development. The depiction of a hot air balloon carrying the people of the region upwards represents dynamic change and optimism. The balloon can take the region, with more than half the world’s population, to new heights, in any direction. In a time of change, the ability to navigate in the right direction will depend on clear, well-informed policy choices and abilities to adjust to changing needs. Making the most of the dividend that can accrue from demographic transition will require countries to read the wind, and to remain alert and responsive to impending challenges as well as opportunities. Copyright © 2016 by the United Nations Development Programme 1 UN Plaza, New York, NY 10017, USA All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted, in any form or by means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without prior permission. ISBN: Printed and bound in Bangladesh by Printcraft Company Limited, Dhaka Designed in New York by Cristina Ottolini Design For a list of any error or omissions found subsequent to printing, please visit our website at: http://www.asia-pacific.undp.org/hdr
ASIA-PACIFIC HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT SHAPING THE FUTURE: HOW CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS CAN POWER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT Published for the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) i
Page 1: ASIA-PACIFIC HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPO
Page 5 and 6: FOREWORD We live in times of great
Page 7 and 8: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Asia-Pacific H
Page 9 and 10: Table of Contents Foreword iii Pref
Page 11 and 12: 1.15 Population age-composition is
Page 13 and 14: Acronyms ADB Asian Development Bank
Page 15 and 16: Overview SHAPING THE FUTURE: HOW CH
Page 17 and 18: HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IN ASIA-PACIFIC:
Page 19 and 20: FIGURE 2: Wealthier countries tend
Page 21 and 22: a strong emphasis on protecting wor
Page 23 and 24: could provide job matching assistan
Page 25 and 26: Asia-Pacific leave the workforce at
Page 27 and 28: WHAT’S AHEAD IN THIS REPORT This
Page 29: Chapter 1 HOW CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS
Page 32 and 33: sustainable, reaching everyone whil
Page 34 and 35: FIGURE 1.1: The Human Development I
Page 36 and 37: TABLE 1.1: Asia-Pacific still has l
Page 38 and 39: married couples to have children, a
Page 40 and 41: FIGURE 1.5: Population pyramids in
Page 42 and 43: FIGURE 1.8: The median age is high
Page 44 and 45: FIGURE 1.10: Disparities in fertili
Page 46 and 47: Improved overall human development
Page 48 and 49: TABLE 1.5: Countries in Asia-Pacifi
Page 50 and 51: “When relatively large generation
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38 Having fewer dependents on worki
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40 In developed Asia- Pacific, the
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TABLE 1.6: Demographic dividends fl
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44
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2. MORE PEOPLE AT WORK: THE FOUNDAT
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encouraged labour-intensive industr
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FIGURE 2.3: Peaks within subregions
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A DEMOGRAPHIC RETURN FOR HUMAN DEVE
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BOX 2.1: Women bear a larger burden
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FIGURE 2.8: Growth in labour produc
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WHAT’S BEEN LEARNED IN CHINA, JAP
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FIGURE 2.13: Japan is past its work
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FIGURE 2.15: Thailand still has tim
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make this a key aim of national dev
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investment climate, as well as enco
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TABLE 2.4: Shares of workers in the
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Even before leaving home, migrant w
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Promote health and safety at work:
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BOX 2.8: Malaysia transforms an ind
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of resilient infrastructure are joi
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Chapter 3 NURTURING CHILDREN, UNLOC
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Asia-Pacific is home to 1.7 billion
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Commendable progress in education m
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Quality primary education mitigates
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In most Asia-Pacific countries, sec
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Strong tertiary education is a buil
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FIGURE 3.3: Access to tertiary educ
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94 TABLE 3.9: Youth illiteracy has
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TABLE 3.11: Child mortality rates b
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BOX 3.7: Malnutrition and disabilit
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Despite social and economic progres
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FIGURE 3.8: The share of youth who
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104 Young migrants are highly vulne
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as an important challenge. But they
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TABLE 3.15: Some countries with lar
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Immunization saves children’s liv
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BOX 3.10: Germany’s vocational tr
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BOX 3.12: Partnering with youth in
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116
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4. AGEING SOCIETIES: NEW OPPORTUNIT
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FIGURE 4.1: Asia-Pacific is one of
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TABLE 4.1: East Asia is the oldest
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BOX 4.2: Responses to poverty among
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BOX 4.3: A plan of action for older
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FIGURE 4.9: Per capita health-care
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BOX 4.5: China moves towards univer
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TABLE 4.3: Social pensions are an i
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FIGURE 4.12: Pension replacement ra
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BOX 4.7: Increasing links between p
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cupy space in some public buildings
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ment bodies, encourage regular inte
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BOX 4.9: Ageing countries begin enc
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help coordinate the work of other g
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for older people. Many advanced cou
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action. Free public transport, and
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Chapter 5 TAPPING THE HUMAN DYNAMIS
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In the last 30 years, Asia-Pacific
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FIGURE 5.3: Even countries with few
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FIGURE 5.6: Most people will contin
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160 Social, cultural and economic i
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The benefits of urbanization have n
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BOX 5.2: Pioneering urban poverty r
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vehicles on the road. Beijing issue
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Municipal governments in Asia-Pacif
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TABLE 5.4: Revenue mobilization opt
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172 City governments need to have t
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Investing in essential infrastructu
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176 in East Asian cities, and occur
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BOX 5.9: The Republic of Korea emba
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180
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6. AN AGENDA FOR ACTION: SHAPING TH
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Development Report argues, decent w
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with ministries overseeing youth, e
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This is an urgent priority in a reg
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SUSTAINING HUMAN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
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plan automatically enrols people in
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BOX 6.3: Developing Delhi’s metro
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End Notes CHAPTER 1 1. UNFPA 2014b.
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63. WHO 2014b. 64. UNFPA 2012. 65.
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produces 40 percent of total econom
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206 The Asia Foundation. 2013. “T
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208 CODI (Community Organizations D
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210 Global Migration Group. 2014.
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212 Janwani. 2010. “Annual Report
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214 ———. 2012a. OECD Employme
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216 ———. 2011. “Follow-up t
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218 York. [www.unfpa.org/sites/defa
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———. 2012c. Malaysia Economic
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tables include the Caribbean countr
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224
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TABLE 2: Trends in the Human Develo
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TABLE 4: Gender Inequality Index 22
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TABLE 6: Trends in income poverty,
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TABLE 8: Fertility rate and crude d
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TABLE 10: Trends and share of child
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TABLE 12: Trends and share of young
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TABLE 14: Trends and share of older
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TABLE 16: Education indicators and
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TABLE 17: Health indicators 242
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TABLE 18: Employment and unemployme
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TABLE 19: International trade, fina
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ABOUT ASIA-PACIFIC HUMAN DEVELOPMEN
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