SHAPING THE FUTURE HOW CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS CAN POWER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

TABLE 4.1:
East Asia is the oldest region and South Asia the youngest
Number and share of 60+ people, 1950-2050
Source: UN DESA 2015a.
FIGURE 4.5:
Women outlive men, especially at older ages
Source: UN DESA 2013.
systematically responding to gender differences
in all areas of life and at all ages.
MORE ELDERLY DEPENDENTS
Through demographic transition, the share of
older people dependent on working-age people is
growing, even as the share of young dependents
shrinks. The overall dependency ratio, which
was nearly 36 percent in 2015, could approach 43
percent in 2050, 6 largely reflecting how the oldage
support ratio, or the number of working-age
people per older person, is rapidly decreasing.
Again, there is considerable variation across
countries, however. In 2015, there were about
5 working-age people for each older person in
Asia, compared to only 4 for the Pacific island
countries. By country, the range extends from 2
persons in Japan to 13 in Afghanistan (Figures
4.6 and 4.7).
About 27 countries have a ratio above 5. Four
countries have a particularly high ratio of more
than 10— Afghanistan, Mongolia, Papua New
Guinea and Solomon Islands, all of which are
still fairly young. High-income countries and
regions tend to have support ratios below 5, such
as Australia; Hong Kong, China (SAR); Japan
and New Zealand. They have entered a period
of ageing and will continue to see declines in
the ratio.
The support ratio of developing countries
and territories, while higher than that of developed
countries, will likely decrease significantly
by 2050, to as low as 1 to 2 persons for Brunei
Darussalam; China; the Islamic Republic of
Iran; Macao, China (SAR); Thailand and Viet
The number of
working-age people
per older person is
quickly decreasing
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