Chapter 2

Table 5 – Forecast total pharmaceutical
expenditures for 2007
Varying of forecasts Expenditure Total
expenditure 2007 per expenditure
capita 2007 (mil. €)
GDP + 1%,
Pop 65+ second forecast,
Prescription + 2% constant,
Constant MMG
GDP + 1,5%,
Pop 65+ second forecast,
Prescription + 2% constant,
Constant MMG
GDP + 1%,
Pop 65+ second forecast,
Prescription + 4% constant,
Constant MMG
GDP + 1,5%,
Pop 65+ second forecast,
Prescription + 4% constant,
Constant MMG
389,47 22.748
390,00 22.780
390,99 22.837
391,52 22.869
anticipated value in 2006.
It should be stressed that while consequential growth prevails in the north because of
older age brackets, prescription inefficiency proves to have an important role in the centre-south.
1.4.7 Conclusions
While we witness the interventions of public policies mainly focusing on price regulations, the
estimated model stresses the urgency to intervene on prescription inefficiency especially in the
centre-south Regions.
As it was expected, the improvement of economic conditions and older age brackets have a
subsequent influence on pharmaceutical expenditure, which naturally tends to rise. This
strengthens the demand to reconsider the 13% roof again since it is independent from the
demographic structure.
In terms of quantity, a 1% GDP increase implicates a 0,26% pharmaceutical expenditure
increase (equal to €0,97 per capita) in Italy, with greater elasticity in the north (0,60%, equal to
€2,26 per capita) rather than centre-south Regions (0,21%, equal to €0.60 per capita).
The effect of the population aging is meaningful in the north and, surprisingly, not as much in
the centre-south. In particular, a 1% increase of the population over 65 years of age would
increase the total per capita pharmaceutical expense by €18,16 in Italy, equal to 4,92% and
by €13,64 equal to 3,71% in the north.
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CEIS Health Report 2006