Crop Insurance as a Risk Management Strategy in Bangladesh

Table 5.2: Climate Change Scenarios for Bangladesh
Year Sea Level
Rise
(cm)
Temperature Increase
( 0 C)
64
Precipitation
fluctuation compared
to 1990 (%)
Based on 2 nd IPCC projections (WB 2000)
2030 30 +0.7 in monsoon; -3 in winter;
+1.13 in winter +11 in monsoon
2050 50 +1.11 in monsoon; -37 in winter;
+1.8 in winter +28 in monsoon
Based on 2 nd IPCC projections ( Agrawala et al. 2003)
2030 +0.8 in monsoon; -1.2 in winter;
+1.1 in winter +4.7 in monsoon
2050 +1.1 in monsoon; -1.7 in winter;
+1.6 in winter +11.8 in monsoon
2100 +1.9 in monsoon; -3.0 in winter;
+2.7 in winter +11.8 in monsoon
Source: Where Land Meets the Sea – A profile of the Coastal Zone of Bangladesh, 2004
5.2.2 Effect on the Agriculture Sector: Direct effect
Changes in
evaporation
+0.9 in winter;
+15.8 in monsoon
0 in winter;
+16.7 in monsoon
Agriculture is considered as one of the major vulnerabilities that the country might face due
to climate change. Yet IPCC (Lal et al., 2001) and other studies (e.g., Karim et al., 1996)
show crop yields potentially increasing at a few degrees Celsius increase in temperature.
Beyond that, particularly as the CO2 fertilization saturates, yields could decrease. For
example, Karim et al. (1996) estimated that rice yields would increase for about a 1.5 0 C
increase combined with higher CO2 levels.
Table 5.3: Change in rice yields in Asia under increments of temperature and CO2 level
Model used and
ambient CO2
levels
% change in mean potential rice yield in Asia resulting from surface air
temperature increment of
0 0 C +1 0 C +2 0 C +4 0 C
ORYZA1 Model
340 ppm 0.00 -7.25 -14.18 -31.00
1.5 X CO2 23.31 12.29 5.60 -15.66
2 X CO2 36.39 26.42 16.76 -6.99
SIMRIW Model
340 ppm 0.00 -4.58 -9.81 -26.15
1.5 X CO2 12.99 7.81 1.89 -16.58
2 X CO2 23.92 18.23 11.74 -8.54
Source: Matthews et al. 1995
Results reported by Karim et al. (undated) for Bangladesh’s Country Study are consistent as
shown in Tables 3. They estimated that rice yields would decline under two GCM scenarios
(GFDL and CCCM). They estimated increased yields for higher CO2 alone (580 and 660
ppmv), higher CO2 combined with a 2 0 C increase, positive and negative changes in yields for
a 580 ppmv of CO2 combined with a 4°C increase, and mostly increased yields for a 660