vgbe energy journal 7 (2022) - International Journal for Generation and Storage of Electricity and Heat

Eastern Europe – Energy security and coal
zegovina (BiH), and Kosovo are potential
candidate countries, although they do not
yet fulfil the requirements for EU membership.
Full EU membership requires candidate
countries to agree to the EU’s plan for carbon
neutrality by 2050. The elimination of
coal power plus a greater reliance on renewables
is seen as a major component of this
process, one that wealthier western member
states are increasingly adopting. However,
eastern European countries are often poorer
and continue to rely on electricity generated
by hard coal and lignite-fired power plants.
Many lack the resources to fully replace
their coal capacity with sustainable, affordable
alternatives. Various new coal projects
have been proposed, but even where
modern high efficiency, low emissions
(HELE) technology has been suggested,
there has been opposition from the EU. Proposals
to upgrade and modernise some existing
plants have also met resistance. But
to comply with EU emission standards,
many coal power plants need upgrading
and equipping with new emission control
systems.
Governments of some prospective member
states face conflicting requirements; they
aspire to achieve full EU membership, but
must provide affordable electricity, crucial
for their populations and economies. Despite
the continued operation of some outdated
and polluting coal-fired capacity, it
remains the only reliable cost-effective option.
In the absence of what governments
consider to be sustainable, affordable alternatives,
some intend to continue its use to
provide at least part of their supply. On
grounds of energy security and cost, some
will find the complete elimination of coal
power difficult and expensive. The situation
has been further complicated by Russia’s invasion
of Ukraine and the subsequent impact
this has on European energy supplies in
general.
The future for coal power in
the region?
Tab. 1. Individual Country’s RELIANCE on Coal for Power Generation (Rogelja, 2020; Couture and
Kusljugic, 2020; IEA, 2020; Buchholz, 2021; Ruiz and others, 2021.
Country
Coal use has been declining in many European
countries, driven mainly by EU and
national policies promoting the greater deployment
of renewables and natural gas,
and higher carbon prices under the EU’s
Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). Such
measures have encouraged some countries
to introduce plans to phase out entirely the
use of coal for power generation. In 2020,
coal provided only 13 % of the EU’s electricity,
a level surpassed by combined generation
from wind and solar. Coal’s share of EU
power supply is now lower than in major
economies such as Australia, China, India,
Japan and the USA.
Further reductions are expected over the
next decade, as 14 EU member states have
announced plans to phase out coal during
2025-30. However, several eastern European
countries intend to retain coal-fired power
generation for some time. These decisions
are based on issues such as ease of availability,
the use of indigenous energy resources
which benefits the economy and promotes
energy security, and the lack of affordable
large-scale alternatives.
Many eastern European countries have traditionally
relied on hard coal and/or lignite
for at least part of their electricity supply
(Table 1) and despite aspirations in some to
decarbonise their power sectors, others intend
to continue its use. Countries that use
coal frequently cite combinations of the following
reasons:
––
use of indigenous energy resources;
––
reducing energy import dependency;
––
easy availability;
––
enhancing national energy security;
––
diversification of sources of energy;
––
cost-effectiveness;
––
growing electricity demand or shortages,
and the need to provide an affordable, reliable
electricity supply;
––
coal generates cheaper, more affordable
electricity than alternatives; and
––
drives economic and/or social development.
Countries citing one or more of the above
include BiH, Kosovo, Serbia, Montenegro,
Turkey, and Ukraine.
Other factors can include scepticism over
the reliability and cost-effectiveness of intermittent
renewables, and concerns over job
losses in the mining sector. In several countries,
the threat of unemployment is a major
factor. For example, in Ukraine, in 2021,
nearly 56,000 workers were employed directly
in coal mining, with a further 40,700
in power plants. In BiH, more than 14,000
were engaged in mining, and around 2,500
in power plants. In Serbia, the figures were
12,300 and 2,900 respectively. There was
also significant employment in the sector in
smaller coal users such as Kosovo, North
Macedonia and Montenegro – these run into
the thousands.
Coal generating capacity,
MW
Electricity from coal, % in a
typical year
Albania 98 0
BiH 2156 65–75
Kosovo 1288 95–98
Montenegro 225 45–55
North Macedonia 1283 50–51
Serbia 4353 67–71
Belarus – 0
Ukraine 2184 30
Moldova 2520 0
Turkey 20,323 33–36
* Single plant capable of firing coal, oil and gas
There are around 50 coal-fired power plants
operating in the Western Balkans and
Ukraine, with a total installed capacity of
around 35 GW. Roughly 70 % of these
plants, amounting to 26 GW, are hard coalfired
and located in Ukraine. The remaining
8.7 GW fire indigenous lignite and are scattered
mainly across Serbia, BiH, Kosovo,
North Macedonia and Montenegro. Of the
countries considered in this report, Turkey is
the largest regional coal power user, with
over 25 individual plants totalling around
20 GW installed capacity.
In more affluent EU member states, coal is
being partly supplanted by increases in capacity
based on intermittent renewables,
mainly wind and solar. However, the impact
on some eastern European countries has
been more limited, with very low levels of
uptake. Of the 17,000 MW of renewables installed
across Europe in 2019, Poland accounted
for just 39 MW, Czechia 26 MW,
Romania 5 MW and Bulgaria 3 MW. Bosnia
had 87 MW of wind power and 22 MW of solar,
and Serbia had 360 MW of wind and
10 MW of solar power.
There are various reasons why the uptake of
renewables has lagged far behind that of
western countries – both regions face different
challenges. The EU is attempting to unify
national energy policies between eastern
and western Europe. However, some eastern
European governments fear that as fossil fuels
are phased out, their national energy
prices are likely to be disproportionally affected.
In the west, prices are unlikely to increase
significantly, whereas, in parts of eastern
Europe, the concern is that the impact is
likely to be much greater.
The deployment of modern coal-fired power
technologies can contribute towards meeting
several Sustainable development goals
– SDGs – the most relevant Goals are summarised
in Ta b l e 2 . The potential contribution
of deploying modern coal-fired power
systems in parts of eastern Europe is summarised
in Ta b l e 3 .
66 | vgbe energy journal 7 · 2022