vgbe energy journal 7 (2022) - International Journal for Generation and Storage of Electricity and Heat

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Eastern Europe – Energy security and coal zegovina (BiH), and Kosovo are potential candidate countries, although they do not yet fulfil the requirements for EU membership. Full EU membership requires candidate countries to agree to the EU’s plan for carbon neutrality by 2050. The elimination of coal power plus a greater reliance on renewables is seen as a major component of this process, one that wealthier western member states are increasingly adopting. However, eastern European countries are often poorer and continue to rely on electricity generated by hard coal and lignite-fired power plants. Many lack the resources to fully replace their coal capacity with sustainable, affordable alternatives. Various new coal projects have been proposed, but even where modern high efficiency, low emissions (HELE) technology has been suggested, there has been opposition from the EU. Proposals to upgrade and modernise some existing plants have also met resistance. But to comply with EU emission standards, many coal power plants need upgrading and equipping with new emission control systems. Governments of some prospective member states face conflicting requirements; they aspire to achieve full EU membership, but must provide affordable electricity, crucial for their populations and economies. Despite the continued operation of some outdated and polluting coal-fired capacity, it remains the only reliable cost-effective option. In the absence of what governments consider to be sustainable, affordable alternatives, some intend to continue its use to provide at least part of their supply. On grounds of energy security and cost, some will find the complete elimination of coal power difficult and expensive. The situation has been further complicated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent impact this has on European energy supplies in general. The future for coal power in the region? Tab. 1. Individual Country’s RELIANCE on Coal for Power Generation (Rogelja, 2020; Couture and Kusljugic, 2020; IEA, 2020; Buchholz, 2021; Ruiz and others, 2021. Country Coal use has been declining in many European countries, driven mainly by EU and national policies promoting the greater deployment of renewables and natural gas, and higher carbon prices under the EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). Such measures have encouraged some countries to introduce plans to phase out entirely the use of coal for power generation. In 2020, coal provided only 13 % of the EU’s electricity, a level surpassed by combined generation from wind and solar. Coal’s share of EU power supply is now lower than in major economies such as Australia, China, India, Japan and the USA. Further reductions are expected over the next decade, as 14 EU member states have announced plans to phase out coal during 2025-30. However, several eastern European countries intend to retain coal-fired power generation for some time. These decisions are based on issues such as ease of availability, the use of indigenous energy resources which benefits the economy and promotes energy security, and the lack of affordable large-scale alternatives. Many eastern European countries have traditionally relied on hard coal and/or lignite for at least part of their electricity supply (Table 1) and despite aspirations in some to decarbonise their power sectors, others intend to continue its use. Countries that use coal frequently cite combinations of the following reasons: –– use of indigenous energy resources; –– reducing energy import dependency; –– easy availability; –– enhancing national energy security; –– diversification of sources of energy; –– cost-effectiveness; –– growing electricity demand or shortages, and the need to provide an affordable, reliable electricity supply; –– coal generates cheaper, more affordable electricity than alternatives; and –– drives economic and/or social development. Countries citing one or more of the above include BiH, Kosovo, Serbia, Montenegro, Turkey, and Ukraine. Other factors can include scepticism over the reliability and cost-effectiveness of intermittent renewables, and concerns over job losses in the mining sector. In several countries, the threat of unemployment is a major factor. For example, in Ukraine, in 2021, nearly 56,000 workers were employed directly in coal mining, with a further 40,700 in power plants. In BiH, more than 14,000 were engaged in mining, and around 2,500 in power plants. In Serbia, the figures were 12,300 and 2,900 respectively. There was also significant employment in the sector in smaller coal users such as Kosovo, North Macedonia and Montenegro – these run into the thousands. Coal generating capacity, MW Electricity from coal, % in a typical year Albania 98 0 BiH 2156 65–75 Kosovo 1288 95–98 Montenegro 225 45–55 North Macedonia 1283 50–51 Serbia 4353 67–71 Belarus – 0 Ukraine 2184 30 Moldova 2520 0 Turkey 20,323 33–36 * Single plant capable of firing coal, oil and gas There are around 50 coal-fired power plants operating in the Western Balkans and Ukraine, with a total installed capacity of around 35 GW. Roughly 70 % of these plants, amounting to 26 GW, are hard coalfired and located in Ukraine. The remaining 8.7 GW fire indigenous lignite and are scattered mainly across Serbia, BiH, Kosovo, North Macedonia and Montenegro. Of the countries considered in this report, Turkey is the largest regional coal power user, with over 25 individual plants totalling around 20 GW installed capacity. In more affluent EU member states, coal is being partly supplanted by increases in capacity based on intermittent renewables, mainly wind and solar. However, the impact on some eastern European countries has been more limited, with very low levels of uptake. Of the 17,000 MW of renewables installed across Europe in 2019, Poland accounted for just 39 MW, Czechia 26 MW, Romania 5 MW and Bulgaria 3 MW. Bosnia had 87 MW of wind power and 22 MW of solar, and Serbia had 360 MW of wind and 10 MW of solar power. There are various reasons why the uptake of renewables has lagged far behind that of western countries – both regions face different challenges. The EU is attempting to unify national energy policies between eastern and western Europe. However, some eastern European governments fear that as fossil fuels are phased out, their national energy prices are likely to be disproportionally affected. In the west, prices are unlikely to increase significantly, whereas, in parts of eastern Europe, the concern is that the impact is likely to be much greater. The deployment of modern coal-fired power technologies can contribute towards meeting several Sustainable development goals – SDGs – the most relevant Goals are summarised in Ta b l e 2 . The potential contribution of deploying modern coal-fired power systems in parts of eastern Europe is summarised in Ta b l e 3 . 66 | vgbe energy journal 7 · 2022
Eastern Europe – Energy security and coal Tab. 2. Selected United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGS). Goal Aims 7 – Affordable clean energy Ensure universal access to affordable, reliable and modern energy services by 2030. This includes enhancing international collaboration to facilitate access to clean energy research and technology, including cleaner fossil fuel technology. 9 – Industry, innovations and infrastructure 12 – Responsible consumption and production Plans for new coal power projects in Eastern Europe Eastern Europe’s coal resources are particularly important to the power sector. In 2018, there were around 65 major mines producing hard coal and lignite [Ruiz and others, 2021]. For example, Turkish reserves comprise around 551 Gt of hard coal and 10,975 Gt of lignite and produced a total of 101.5 Mt in that year, of which 87 Mt was directed to the power sector. Significant amounts of coal are produced in Ukraine, Serbia, BiH, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Montenegro, and Turkey. Fossil fuels are used to generate a combined total of 61% of the electricity produced in Albania, Build resilient infrastructure, promote sustainable industrialisation and foster innovation. The aim is to upgrade certain aspects of industry by 2030 in order to make them more sustainable, with increased resource-use efficiency, whilst adopting clean and environmentally sound technologies. Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns. Aims include the environmentally sound management of wastes throughout their life cycle, and significantly reducing any adverse impacts on human health and the environment. 13 – Climate action Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts. 17 – Partnership for the goals Revitalise the global partnership for sustainable development through improved international cooperation on topics that include energy technologies with a low environmental impact. Tab. 3. The Potential Contribution of Modern Coal Power in Meeting un SDGS in Eastern Europe. Goal 7 – Affordable clean energy Provision of affordable, reliable, sustainable electricity supply. Modern coal power plants can produce very low emission levels. Their high efficiency generates less CO 2 per unit of electricity than older technologies. Coal consumption per unit of electricity is lower. 9 – Industry, innovations and infrastructure 12 - Responsible consumption and production Many existing coal power plants in the region are outdated and polluting – they need modernising or replacing with newer technologies. Several HELE technologies are now available in the 300–400 MW range, making them suitable for countries with modest energy needs or as backup where capacity based on intermittent renewables is significant. A sound, reliable electricity sector is a prerequisite for meaningful, sustainable economic and social development. A suite of emission control systems can be applied to modern coal power plants, greatly reducing emissions to air, land and water. Emissions from some existing plants are currently excessive – replacement with HELE technologies would minimise adverse impacts on human health and the environment. 13 – Climate action Modern coal power plants use less coal and produce lower CO2 levels per unit of electricity than older systems. Modern plants have potential for equipping with CCUS, reducing CO 2 levels further. Cofiring coal with biomass in power plants helps mitigate CO2 emissions. 17 – Partnership for the goals HELE technologies have been successfully established in many countries. Projects often involve significant international collaboration between national and international technology developers, vendors, and utilities. BiH, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia. Some regional governments have pledged to follow the EU on its path towards a carbon-neutral economy by 2050, although in many cases, this has yet to be reflected in concrete actions, and some countries are proceeding with plans to refurbish existing coal-fired energy capacity or commission new plants. However, EU legislation such as the Industrial Emissions Directive (IED) is having an impact on coal power in the region, and some older coal plants could be closed within the next few years. Around 10 units in Serbia, Montenegro and BiH, with a combined capacity of around 1 GW, are currently operating under the EU’s optout mechanism, one of the implementation alternatives under the Directive. It provides the possibility for an exemption of individual plants from the compliance regime, although it limits their operating hours to a maximum of 20,000 between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2023. However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent impact on energy supplies throughout much of the region could result in some operational lifetimes being extended to maintain energy security. Most of these units that could be closed are older, small-capacity subcritical units of low efficiency and with high emissions. Individual countries are at different stages in addressing air pollution in terms of national strategies, policy development, funding, monitoring and reporting. In the run-up to the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) conference of November 2021, several announced plans to reduce emissions and deadlines for achieving carbon neutrality. The environmental impact of coal-fired power generation in eastern Europe and beyond has frequently been highlighted as an area of concern – emissions of SO 2 , NO x and particulates often exceed permitted limits. SO 2 and/or particulates are the most frequent and persistent pollutants to exceed legislation thresholds, particularly in BiH, Serbia, Kosovo, and North Macedonia. For example, in 2019, total SO 2 emissions from coal power plants in these countries reached nearly six times the amount allowed by the countries’ plans. There are 16 major lignite power plants in BiH, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, and Kosovo, that have been famously cited as emitting as much SO 2 and particulates in 2016 as all the EU’s 250 coal plants combined. However, remedial works have since been undertaken or are progressing at a number of sites. For example, the Ugljevik power plant in BiH formerly emitted up to 50 tSO 2 /GWh, but has recently been equipped with flue gas desulphurisation (FGD), dramatically reducing emission levels. Likewise, in Serbia, remedial works undertaken at the Nikola Tesla A and B plants have included various overhauls, the upgrading of mills, and installation of FGD units and low NOx burners. Such efforts are important as emissions to air are not restricted by national borders, and trans-boundary dispersion means that pollutants can spread into neighbouring countries or regions. Many eastern European countries are signatories to the EU’s Energy Community Treaty that came into force in 2006, including Albania, BiH, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia. The treaty aims to integrate energy markets in the region with that of the EU and apply appropriate environ- vgbe energy journal 7 · 2022 | 67
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