STATE OF THE WORLD'S CITIES 2012/2013 Prosperity

Chapter 1.2
Urban and
Regional Trends
MORE THAN HALF OF THE WORLD IS NOW URBAN
It is really remarkable that only one century ago, two
out of 10 people in the world were living in urban areas.
In the least developed countries, this proportion was
as low as five per cent, as the overwhelming majority
was living in rural areas. The world has been rapidly
urbanizing since then and, in some countries and regions,
at an unprecedented pace. It was only two years ago that
humankind took a historic step when, for the first time
in history, the urban outnumbered the rural population.
This milestone marked the advent of a new “urban
millennium” and, by the middle of this century, it is
expected that out of every 10 people on the planet, seven
will be living in urban areas.
Interestingly, only 60 years ago or so (1950), the
number of people living in urban centres was slightly
higher in the developed nations (54 per cent, or 442
million) compared with developing countries. Today,
of every 10 urban residents in the world more than
seven are found in developing countries, which are also
hosts to an overwhelming proportion of humankind
(82 per cent of the world’s population). Moreover, it is
estimated that, between 2010 and 2015, some 200,000
people on average will be added to the world’s urban
population each day. Worth noting is that 91 per cent of
this daily increase (or 183,000) is expected to take place in
developing countries.
25
Urban Change in
Developed Countries
URBAN POPULATION GROWTH IS NExT TO
STAGNANT
In the more advanced nations, urban population growth
is next to stagnant (0.67 per cent on an annual average basis
since 2010), which represents an additional six million or
so every year. In Europe, the annual increase is only two
million. By comparison, the aggregate annual population
increase in six major developing-country cities – New Delhi
and Mumbai (India), Dhaka (Bangladesh), Lagos (Nigeria),
Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of Congo) and Karachi
(Pakistan) – is higher than Europe’s entire population.
Population in North American cities was the least slow of
all those in the developed world between 2005 and 2010,
particularly in the United States (one per cent on average).
The Growth, Decline and Prosperity of Cities: There
is no clear association between the demographic growth or
decline of cities and their degrees of prosperity. Although
population numbers have declined in a number of cities in
Western Europe, Canada and New Zealand, this did not
affect living standards, which in some cases even improved.
On the other hand, and
as might be expected,
population declines in
a number of cities in
Eastern Europe and the
United States of America
are strongly associated
with economic decay. The
deterioration of inner
city conditions (deserted
FACT
In the last
20 years,
the proportions of
European cities with
demographic growth
rates over one per cent
and of those with
population declines
were comparable.