STATE OF THE WORLD'S CITIES 2012/2013 Prosperity

State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013
Urban Change in
Developing Countries
DIvERGENT URBAN GROWTH PATTERNS
In the last decade, the urban population in the developing
world grew an average 1.2 million people per week, or
slightly less than one full year’s demographic growth in
Europe’s urban areas. Asia dominated the picture, adding
0.88 million new urban dwellers every week. Africa was the
second largest contributor with an additional 0.23 million
per week, dwarfing Latin America and the Caribbean’s
0.15 million weekly increment.
Africa: The urban population is set to outstrip
Europe’s: In what promises to be one of the more
remarkable forthcoming developments in the overall
pattern of urbanization in Africa, the region’s population
is poised to outgrow both Europe’s and Latin America’s,
which was the first region to become predominantly urban
in the developing world. In 2025, the aggregate urban
population of Africa, Europe, Latin America and the
FACT
Urbanization in Africa has not yet brought the economic
development and degree of prosperity that might have
been expected. Inadequate education and physical infrastructure,
combined with poor governance, have constrained the efficient use
of productive resources, and the industrial development that might
have come with it. At the same time, the ongoing urban economic
momentum in Africa is a result of a number of the typical factors of
prosperity at work in other regions of the world, such as economies
of agglomeration, location advantages, and diversification of the
economic base, albeit all in nascent form.
FACT
Asia is also confronted by the same urban paradox as
Africa. Despite high concentrations of population in large
cities, the continent ranks among the least-urbanized regions in
the world (45 per cent urban). The tipping point for ‘urban Asia’ is
expected to happen earlier though (around 2020s).
POLICy
The economic success of many countries/cities goes
hand in hand with urbanization. Cities must give
more attention to rising inequalities and the worrying trend of
environmental degradation.
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Caribbean is expected to reach 642 million, 566 million
and 560 million, respectively. In an apparent paradox, by
that same year 2025 Africa will still be the least urbanized
region in the world (45 per cent of the population).
Asia: Moving into the “Urban Century”: Half of the
world’s urban population now lives in Asia. This region
has accounted for about 65 per cent of the demographic
expansion of all urban areas across the world since the
beginning of the 21st Century. Undoubtedly, this is the
“Asian Urban Century”. 13 Large population concentrations
in mega-cities are to remain a prominent feature in
urban Asia (today, seven out of the 10 most populous cities
of the world are in this region). In the recent past, Delhi
and Shanghai have joined the league of ‘meta-cities’, those
massive conurbations of more than 20 million people. It is
expected that by 2020, another three Asian cities – Beijing,
Dhaka and Mumbai – will have reached the 20 million mark.
Latin America and the Caribbean: Inter-city migration
predominates: This is the most urbanized region in the
world (80 per cent of the total population, compared with
Europe’s 73 per cent).The urban transition in this region
was achieved in the early 1960s, or about 16 years before
Western Asia (the second sub-region in the developing
world to become predominantly urban), and 30 and 45
years respectively before Southern and North Africa (or, on
current trends, some 70 years before the whole of Africa).
CONvERGENT URBAN GROWTH PATTERNS
Cities are expanding in a discontinuous, scattered and
low-density form that is not sustainable: A defining feature
of cities in the developing
world is an outward
expansion far beyond
formal administrative POLICy
boundaries, largely
propelled by the use
of the automobile and
land speculation. A large
number of cities – whether
in Angola, Egypt, Brazil,
China, or almost any other
country – feature very
land-consuming suburban
sprawling patterns that
often extend even to
farther peripheries. A study
on 120 cities shows that
urban land cover grew,
African
cities must
connect to regional
and global business
networks, enhance
quality of life, improve
basic infrastructure
and communication
networks, address
public transport
deficiencies and
environmental
conditions, and respond
to inequality and
poverty issues, if they
are to turn into real
engines of national
growth and prosperity.