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REPORTE SOFTECGráfica 5Preventing informal growth, in all itsaspects, will have a positive impact, duethat 65% of housing growth belongs toself construction and from this number,80% belongs to irregular built homes.homes, compared with its historic average. Inthe middle term, the perspective for these citiespoints to the consolidation and maintenanceof a positive dynamic. Cities like Ciudad Juarez,Aguascalientes, Villahermosa, Morelia, Acapulco,Irapuato and Tijuana, have recently shownan increasing vocation for affordable housing,especially from Social segment up to 337,000pesos each unit.In almost all housing markets of Mexico,economic dynamics and employment will supportthe growth axis of finished new housingmarket. In this way, as investment plans, creationof new permanent jobs and new companiesbecome a reality, 2015 perspectives forformal new home markets will have a positiveperformance.Preventing informal growth, in all its aspects,will have a positive impact, due that 65%of housing growth belongs to self constructionand from this number, 80% belongs to irregularbuilt homes.Housing startsSince 2007, new housing market has experienceda continuous decreasing performance interms of new developments and housing unitsstarted (Graph 3).In this way, for 2014, Softec estimates thatthe housing starts (projects and units) will gobelow 2013 numbers.In terms of new houses started by segment,it can be observed a higher negative impact inaffordable housing segments (S y E) and Middle.2011 and 2012 present an important decreasingtrend for affordable segments. Middle,Residential and Residential Plus markets haduneven performance and it will be difficult toreplenish in 2015, the amount of projects thatdidn’t start in previous years (Graph 4).For 2015, it is foreseen that legal, constructionlending and land reserves availability aspectswill keep restricting housing starts. For2015, it is expected that at least, the amount ofnew projects and units coming in to the marketwill maintain 2014 numbers.Stock depletionAs a consequence of the continuous decreasein the housing starts (projects and units), repositionof sold units bought by housing demandersgets difficult, impacting in a more dramaticway over the stock depletion process. In theevent of not having new starts of projects andunits, stocks will be finished in no more thanfive years. In fact, 2015 could finish with 56%less units, compared with 2014. And for 2020,only 5% of units on sale now will be still in themarket (Graph 5).New association schemes among developers,investment funds, and even authorities, willallow the purchase and enabling of new landreserves for restoring housing starts trends forthose markets with a higher dynamic performance.The later will contribute to maintain thesales stability observed in the past three quarters.The possibility of restoring supply that hasbeen taken away from the market from housingsales, will allow to keep attracting new housingbuyers looking for an opportunity to apply theirmortgages, to move to a better segment or toget advantage of a good real state investment(Graph 6).Market opportunitiesDue the restrains to the market because of thelack of qualified land reserves and the shortage ofurbanization and construction financing, recoveryof sales performance will be highly limited. Developerswho can close productive associationsor can start new stages of actual projects, cantake advantage of the stock depletion processand with this, opening important sales opportunitiesfor participating in a higher professionalenvironment, understanding buyer needs and togive aggregate value for products and services inan increasing competitive market. •Gráfica 642www.inmobiliare.com