SOCIETY 354 /2010

around Afghanistan there is “a problem of
myopic temptation to benefit from the
failures of an opponent”.
However, the overall situation still is
not so hopeless. The regional states and the
world's leading players enjoy positive experience
of dialogue on the Afghan problem,
as evidenced by the successful activity of
the Contact Group “6+2” on Afghanistan in
1999, initiated by Uzbekistan. The group
under the auspices of the UN at the time included
the states bordering with Afghanistan
– Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Pakistan,
Iran, Tajikistan, China and Russia-USA.
Today, Uzbekistan again offers under
the auspices of the UN to revive this format
and to include NATO. Thus, the group will
be “6+3”. The idea of establishing a contact
group was announced by the President Islam
Karimov at the NATO summit in Bucharest
in 2008.
There have been lively discussions
around the idea, and it has already got its
supporters. For instance, chairman of the
Central Asia-Caucasus Institute under
Johns Hopkins University professor S. Frederick
Starr within the framework of his
visit to Uzbekistan in November 2009 noted
that “the Contact Group “6+3” is the
most effective mechanism for the rebuilding
process of Afghanistan and a peaceful
political dialogue between all intra-warring
parties”. (2)
Of course, the idea also has its opponents,
but the reality is that the debates
can last forever, while chances of resolving
the Afghan dilemma are desperately being
missed. The fact is that the problem of 2011
as a “sword of Damocles” hangs over all
interested parties of modern Afghan drama.
Just from this year the countdown for
withdrawing U.S. troops from Afghanistan
begins, as stated Barack Obama, and entering
into this 1.5-year period, we find ourselves
in a situation of total uncertainty.
To clarify the situation of uncertainty, it
is right necessary to establish as soon as
possible a mechanism for multilateral dialogue,
in the framework of which there
could be started a movement to achieve at
least three large-scale inter-related goals.
The first goal, as is seen, should be creation
of an atmosphere of trust between all
actors in Eurasian geopolitics, related to Afghanistan.
The second goal is very well formulated
by Henry Kissinger, according to whom
“the aim should be turning Afghanistan –
through the efforts of the international
community – into a terrorists-free zone,
just as during the dominance of Europe in
world politics neutrality of some countries
was provided by international treaties”.
If Afghanistan will not turn into a “terrorists-free
zone”, which is actually impossible
without a full coordination of all
border states on blocking borders and militants-,
weapons-, drugs- and precursors
trafficking channels, even sending of
100,000 additional soldiers to this country
will not solve the problem, since the problem
of preventing restoration of militants’
resource base is not solved.
The third large-scale goal of a multilateral
dialogue could be development of a
conceptual vision for management reform
and economic revival of Afghanistan. Today
it is obvious that without international
aid Kabul is not able to solve the most pressing
problems of the country. Until now
the international community has mainly
acted through large financial injections into
the Afghan economy, army and state apparatus.
However, the effectiveness of this
strategy was not as high as expected, largely
because of corruption and lack of a
well-considered development program.
Meanwhile, it seems more reasonable to
create such conditions in Afghanistan, in
which it could be able to create own sources
of incomes capable of becoming a significant
alternative to international aid.
This is possible only through the gradual
integration of Afghanistan into the regional
economic and transport structures.
Uzbekistan in its cooperation with Afghanistan
acts just in this manner, as is demonstrated
by construction of a railroad
connecting the Uzbek border town Termez
with Mazar-e Sharif, the largest economic
center of northern Afghanistan. State Joint-
Stock Railway Company “Uzbekiston Temir
Yollari” won tender for the construction of
the this railroad.
This railroad will enable the Afghan business
to get the shortest access not only to
the Uzbek market, but also to the markets
of Central Asia, Russia and China, which
will become an incentive for increased
production of export-oriented Afghan
goods.
In principle, the Afghan problem now
reached a point, where an alternative to
the speedy establishment of an open multilateral
dialogue does not virtually exist.
The priority of the military component of
NATO policy in Afghanistan has proven its
effectiveness at the initial stage, but in recent
years it has stalled, a clear indication
of which is the revival of the Taliban.
The Afghan problem is inherently a
much wider issue and its solution should
be found both inside Afghanistan and in
the problems of the region as a whole. Fortunately,
the understanding of this is often
discussed among the international expert
and political circles, and this gives us hope
that a multilateral discussion format,
including the one proposed by Uzbekistan,
will be launched in the foreseeable
future.
Eight years ago thanks to a confidential
multilateral cooperation there was a success
in starting the process of stabilization
and economic reconstruction of Afghanistan.
Why not try to run again this proven
mechanism, while there is still time for it?
Notes:
(1) Henry Kissinger: “Deployments and Diplomacy”
(Newsweek, USA) 03.10.2009
(2) “US experts support initiatives of Uzbekistan
on Afghan resolution”, www.regnum.ru
04.12.2009
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Gulnara Karimova is a doctor of political science and professor.
She currently serves as Ambassador Extraordinary
and Plenipotentiary of Uzbekistan to Spain and Permanent
Representative of Uzbekistan to the United Nations
Office and other International Organizations in Geneva, as
Director in the Center for Political Studies.
Her research interests cover: international security, regional
economic issues and world economy, geopolitics,
energy and transport issues, soft power.
She is the author of a series of articles: “Application of ‘soft
power’ strategy on Asian civilization spaces” (“Contemporary
International Relations”, China, 2009); “World financial
crisis: analysis of tendencies” (“Russia, Central Asia
and Eastern Europe”, China, 2009), “Cooperation harmony”
(“Oil&Gas Vertical Journal”, Russia, 2007).
Gulnara Karimova took part in several international conferences
with speeches, which had significant resonance,
among them the speech on “Soft power as a tool in realization
of social initiatives of human society in the state”
(World Economic Forum on the Middle East, Jordan,
2009).
She was directly involved in holding several conferences
on subjects relevant to the region of Central Asia and for
international cooperation. These include: The Central Asian
Energy Market: Trends and Prospects (2005); Central
Asia as Transcontinental Transportation Bridge (2007);
Establishing a Modern media Field: the Role of Information
Technologies, Structural Approach and Regional Specifics
in Developing the Information Are. (2006); Business
Forums: series of Uzbekistan-Japan Business Forums in
Tashkent and Tokyo (2007-2009); Investment potential
presentations and round tables in Europe (Geneva, Vienna,
Milan, and Brussels in September-October 2009).
Gulnara Karimova is chief editor of the well-known magazine
“Uzbekistan and Central Asia”, which covers political
and socio-economic issues of the development of
Central Asia.
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