Bewilligungen im Jahr 2008 - Volkswagen Stiftung

Bonn
Zürich
- 131 -
High-pressure fluid-controlled earthquake cycles and fault networks
Bewilligung: 04.02.2011 Laufzeit: 3 Jahre
The hypothesis is tested that much of the earthquake cycle is substantially controlled by
the mechanical, chemical, and time-varying hydraulic behaviour of high pressure fluids
trapped at depth at the base of the seismogenic brittle crust. This hypothesized scenario
is supported by numerous observations. However, numerical modeling is currently
insufficient to properly explore its implications. Theoretical developments and analyses of
seismic sequences are necessary to quantify evolving fracture networks, both prior to the
earthquake, and of the subsequent aftershock sequences. First, a 3-dimensional
numerical model that couples a pressure-dependent permeability with a deforming poroelastic-plastic
rheology is developed and used to quantify the structural and mechanical
properties of the active set of faults. Next, a pattern recognition algorithm and rigorous
validation schemes for fault and fracture networks are tackled. An investigation of
ongoing and future seismic sequences and pattens forms the basis for an improved
earthquake hazard assessment.
Universität Bonn
Steinmann-Institut für Geologie, Mineralogie und Paläontologie
Geodynamik/Geophysik
Prof. Dr. Stephen Andrew Miller
Nußallee 8
53115 Bonn
Tel.: 0228 737430
Homepage: www.geo.uni-bonn.de
Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich
Departement Management, Technologie und Ökonomie
Chair of Entrepreneurial Risks
Prof. Dr. Didier Sornette
Kreuzplatz 5
CH-8032 Zürich
SCHWEIZ
Tel.: 004163 28917
Fax : 004163 21914
Homepage: www.er.ethz.ch
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