Bewilligungen im Jahr 2008 - Volkswagen Stiftung
Bewilligungen im Jahr 2008 - Volkswagen Stiftung
Bewilligungen im Jahr 2008 - Volkswagen Stiftung
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Kiel<br />
Birmingham<br />
Gif-sur-Yvette<br />
- 135 -<br />
Projections and predictions of Local prEcipitation Intensities. Advanced<br />
Downscaling using Extreme value Statistics (PLEIADES)<br />
Bewilligung: 04.02.2011 Laufzeit: 2 <strong>Jahr</strong>e<br />
Robust knowledge on regional scales about future changes in precipitation extremes is<br />
crucial for planning adaptation to cl<strong>im</strong>ate change. As global cl<strong>im</strong>ate models do not<br />
provide reliable information below scales of about 200 km, dynamical or statistical<br />
postprocessing is required. However, such downscaling approaches are currently l<strong>im</strong>ited<br />
in their representation of precipitation extremes. The project a<strong>im</strong>s to substantially <strong>im</strong>prove<br />
downscaling methodologies by developing a statistical downscaling and correction<br />
method for precipitation s<strong>im</strong>ulated in regional and global cl<strong>im</strong>ate models. An est<strong>im</strong>ation of<br />
the full precipitation distribution, including extreme events and spatial dependence is<br />
seeked that is able to correct location biases. An ensemble of scenarios for precipitation<br />
and its extremes for Europe for the entire 21st century will be analysed in order to<br />
downscale global decadal predictions that are currently in preparation.<br />
GEOMAR – Helmholtz-Zentrum für Ozeanforschung Kiel<br />
FB Ozeanzirkulation und Kl<strong>im</strong>adynamik<br />
Prof. Dr. Douglas Maraun<br />
University of Birmingham<br />
School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences<br />
Dr. Martin Widmann<br />
GROSSBRITANNIEN<br />
CNRS – Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Gif-sur-Yvette<br />
Laboratoire des Sciences du Cl<strong>im</strong>at et de l'Environnement<br />
Centre d'Etude de Saclay<br />
Dr. Mathieu Vrac<br />
FRANKREICH<br />
Ansprechpartner:<br />
GEOMAR – Helmholtz-Zentrum für Ozeanforschung Kiel<br />
FB Ozeanzirkulation und Kl<strong>im</strong>adynamik<br />
Prof. Dr. Douglas Maraun<br />
Düsternbrooker Weg 20<br />
24105 Kiel<br />
Tel.: 0431 6004057<br />
Fax: 0431 6004052<br />
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