Eurobodalla Integrated Water Cycle Management Strategy

Eurobodalla Integrated Water Cycle Management Strategy
To develop a cohesive IWCM strategy for the next three decades it is necessary to consider
how rapidly, and in which localities, the population is expected to grow. As part of this study,
previous population projections have been reviewed in consultation with Council’s town
planners. A study undertaken by Macoun (1998) noted that the population was not growing
as fast as that predicted using the 1996 Department of Urban Planning and Affairs (DUAP,
now Planning NSW) projections. These projections were based on the 1991 census. The
study by Macoun kept the gradient of the DUAP low growth curve and corrected for the
lower population.
Since this study, population projections have become available from the Australian Bureau
of Statistics based on the 1996 and 2001 census figures. Thus, in this IWCM strategy the
population projections have been adjusted for the actual growth rate recorded in the shire
and are shown in Table 6-1. Further detail on growth rates can be found in appendix E.
Table 6-1 Population Projection
Year Shire Population
2001 33 140
2004 34 694
2009 37 085
2014 39 422
2019 41 697
2024 43 932
2029 46 173
2032 47 514
Table 6-1 shows that the shire population is predicted to increase by about 50% over the
next 30 years. Growth is expected to be concentrated in the north of the shire, and this
region is predicted to account for about 50% of the total growth. An independent study
commissioned by Council (Census Applications Australia, 2002) confirms these projections.
Population Growth Rate
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
Historical
ABS Forecast
0%
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Figure 6-3 Past and Future Growth Rates
Five Years Ending
Adjustment and Extrapolation
of ABS Forecast
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