World in Transition: Climate Change as a Security Risk - WBGU

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6 Conflict constellations
Box 6.1-1
Scenarios and forecasts
Forecasts are scientifically derived statements on the probable
course of future events within a given time span. The
more complex the field of study and the longer the time
span, the more uncertain forecasts become. In these circumstances,
scenarios are the preferred method; on the one
hand they point up the range of possible future developments
and focus attention particularly on causal processes,
influencing factors and strategic decision points. Scenarios,
unlike forecasts, consist of a hypothetical sequence of
events which is constructed in order to illustrate causal linkages.
They are not backed up with probabilities. There are
different types of scenario. The typical steps in creating scenarios
are
Instead, they are intended to contribute to identifying,
and hence avoiding, the most risk-laden trends.
The selection of regions for the scenarios is derived
from the analyses in Chapter 5. The scenarios begin
around the year 2020. Their time horizon extends to
the year 2050, and in certain instances as far ahead as
2100. Some of the risks relating to the second half of
the century have a low probability but high destructive
potential ( tipping points, Section 5.3).
Climate change up to mid-century largely
predetermined
Until around the middle of the century (2020–2050) it
is hypothesized that climate change will consistently
advance, forming the ‘backdrop’ to possible socioeconomic
developments. Because of the inherent
response times of these dynamics, there may already
be drastic regional climate impacts, e.g. an increase in
the frequency or severity of extreme events. The exact
nature of the repercussions on the ground is determined
by bifurcations in the socio-economic arena,
e.g. whether or not a trend is identified and corresponding
adaptations are made, or whether general
political and social stability improves or deteriorates.
During this period, the scale of climate change itself
can only be influenced within narrow margins.
Non-linear environmental change possible
from mid-century
In developing scenarios for the middle of the century
onwards, it is assumed that climate change will begin
to take on a new quality: in this period, its scale will
depend critically on the decisions and actions taken
in the first half of the century. In principle, different
trajectories are conceivable for the development of
environmental change. Moreover, under conditions
of intense climate change, possible non-linear climatic
dynamics such as the failure of the Indian monsoon,
– defining the parameters (type of scenario, time span,
etc.),
– scenario field analysis, including identification of influences
and analysis of key factors,
– scenario projection, including assessment of how key
factors will develop,
– condensing the scenarios into consistent narratives,
– and evaluation of the scenarios.
In the report, narrative scenarios are developed which ‘tell
the stories’ of possible future developments along alternative
trajectories. As far as possible, they are based on forecasts
about individual influencing factors (e.g. changes in
the climate). Other influencing factors are deduced from
empirical findings in relation to other processes. The aim
is to envision how developments might potentially unfold
and to identify pointers for strategic political choices at critical
moments.
shifts in the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone or the
weakening of the North Atlantic Current may lead
to further bifurcation of developmental trajectories.
Effectively this would represent dramatic alteration
of the biogeophysical ‘backdrop’ against which socioeconomic
developments are played out. It would
pose major social challenges which could bring forth
either cooperation or conflict. Section 5.3 presents
some examples of non-linear environmental trends
with a low probability of occurrence but extremely
high destructive potential.
6.1.3
Deriving recommendations for action
For every conflict constellation and its associated
scenarios, recommendations are derived for action
which may help to avoid or alleviate the given set of
problems. These include not only strategies for avoiding
and adapting to climate change, but also aspects
of good governance which make a difference to crisis
prevention. Although some of the repercussions
considered will only occur in the distant future, the
aim is to develop recommendations for action for the
present and the near future.