World in Transition: Climate Change as a Security Risk - WBGU

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6 Conflict constellations
Disaster and collapse of state functions
Bad governance and
internal political
tensions
Social tensions
Waning
bilateral conflict
Outset situation
Conflicts in
power vacuums
De-escalation
through relief efforts
disasters certainly represent opportunities to overcome
entrenched political-ideological differences. In
the case of conflicts involving several parties or an
increasing level of tensions, there appears to be relatively
little prospect of de-escalation.
6.4.2.4
The time sequence of disaster-induced conflict
mechanisms
State functions restored
Conflicts while state
functions are restored
0 approx. 2 days approx. 1 week approx. 2 years
Possible developments
Figure 6.4-2 shows a simplified classification of the
mechanisms presented and their progression over
time. The collapse of state functions is both an inherent
component of large-scale natural disasters and a
precondition for the conflict mechanisms described.
The latter are linked to specific outset situations, but
can also occur in combined forms in certain circumstances.
Whereas de-escalation may begin from the
first offer of assistance, generally looting will only
start to happen two days after the disaster event.
Intra state conflicts will not normally escalate until
after the main direct consequences of the disaster
have been responded to.
Overall the preconditions under which conflicts
will be triggered or amplified can be summarized in
terms of key factors, which are briefly outlined below.
The typical mechanisms of action are presented schematically
in Figure 6.4-3.
The dimension of influence [1] Physical threat to
a location or a region depends substantially on the
intensity and frequency of extreme events. The level
of threat is not purely a function of individual factors
like precipitation levels and wind speed, but also
depends on geographical location (e.g. low-lying coast
or river valley). Other key factors that come into play
are, in many cases, partly influenced by human activities.
Examples are the deforestation of river basins,
which increases peak run-off (the highest water level
Escalation of
intrastate conflicts
Negotiations
Figure 6.4-2
Characteristic time
sequence of disaster-induced
conflict mechanisms.
Intensity of colour indicates
intensity of conflict.
Source: WBGU
on a water gauge during a flood), and the subsidence
of cities due to increased groundwater abstraction.
Influence dimension [2] Vulnerability to extreme
events groups together the key factors which determine
whether an event will actually unleash catastrophic
effects or whether people and infrastructure
will escape largely unscathed. A significant key factor
here is population density and the concentration
of property and assets in areas at risk. The flooding
of an uninhabited river valley is not, in itself, a natural
disaster. The devastation of critical infrastructure
facilities such as hospitals, transport and communication
nodes by extreme events, on the other hand, is
a crucial feature of disasters. However, vulnerability
is also determined by economic, social and organizational
characteristics. Besides the nature and extent
of disaster preparedness, factors such as poverty, economic
structure and educational level are also critical.
Past experience has shown that disaster exposes poor
population groups to a disproportionately higher risk
than wealthy population groups (UNISDR, 2004).
Whether the temporary breakdown of state order
in disaster situations is abused by non-state actors
for criminal ends depends essentially on dimension
of influence [3] Social stability. In many societies,
disasters lead to higher levels of internal cohesion
and widespread helpfulness (Fuentes, 2003; Auf
der Heide, 2004); in different milieus, they lead to the
emergence of criminal gangs and looters. It is assumed
that a raised crime rate is most likely in places where
social tensions and crime have been known problems
beforehand. This assumption is supported by observations
in the USA (Auf der Heide, 2004). Social tensions
are often the expression of large income disparities,
a high unemployment rate, and social and ethnic
segregation. Social inequality is also cited as a key
factor with negative repercussions for the stability of
post-disaster states (Drury and Olson, 1998). The
explanation offered is that in societies with severe
social inequality, poorer sections of the population