World in Transition: Climate Change as a Security Risk - WBGU

further destabilization, jeopardizing the attainment
of the Millennium Development Goals as well.
The findings of the present report show that it is the
poorest developing countries in the tropical regions,
above all, that will in future be affected by fragility at
internal level and by strong climate stress from outside.
It is essential that in their response to weak and
fragile states, Germany and its partners assess the
scale of the phenomenon correctly and consider the
long-term timeframes in which there is any prospect
of success. There is therefore also a need to secure
comprehensive and long-term funding. The implications
of climate change for the scale, longevity and
financing of possible German contributions to the
stabilization of weak and fragile states should therefore
be taken into account to a greater extent in the
Action Plan ‘Civilian Crisis Prevention, Conflict Resolution
and Post-Conflict Peace-Building’.
This debate should be conducted first and foremost
within the European Union framework, firstly,
in order to gain a more accurate picture of whether,
and how, the comparative advantages and specific
capacities of the national implementing organizations
can be deployed on a targeted basis within the
nascent European development cooperation and
how these resources can be pooled in order to facilitate
burden-sharing; and secondly, in order to ensure
the greatest possible coherence with the Common
Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP).
In this context, WBGU recommends, in particular,
the operationalization of the Solana strategy in line
with the Barcelona Report of the Study Group on
Europe’s Security Capabilities, which prioritizes crisis
prevention with the aim of avoiding military intervention
as far as possible. WBGU is therefore critical
of the proposals made by the Institute for Security
Studies in Paris, which call for greater military
engagement by Europe and the expansion of its flexible
deployment capabilities (Section 2.2).
Implementing the OECD’s working
principles
In its response to weak and fragile states, the German
government should continue to play an active role
in the Fragile States Group set up by the OECD’s
Development Assistance Committee (DAC). In particular,
it should drive forward the implementation
and further development of the Principles for Good
International Engagement in Fragile States and Situations
(Box 4.2-3). This process has high priority
within the DAC and will form a key part of the
DAC’s work programme for the next two years.
WBGU recommends that within the DAC process,
efforts be made to ensure that appropriate
account is taken, in the implementation of the Principles,
of the risks arising from climate change. Specif-
The window of opportunity for climate security: 2007–2020 10.3
ically, weak and fragile states’ capacities to manage
environmental risks must be maintained and reinforced,
and if necessary re-established, even under
difficult political and economic conditions. First and
foremost, this means putting in place the necessary
conditions for effective measures for adaptation to
anticipated climate change. Although major security
impacts resulting from climate change are only
expected in the medium to long term, it must nonetheless
be borne in mind that crisis prevention today
costs far less than crisis management at a later stage.
What is still lacking, however, are appropriate instruments
to assess the impacts of climate change in various
country contexts. That being the case, the DAC’s
Fragile States Group and the German Inter-Ministerial
Working Group on Crisis Prevention should
make efforts to promote further development of
early warning and prevention mechanisms.
Expanding the ‘Whole-of-Government’
approach to encompass the environmental
dimension
With the adoption of the Principles for Good International
Engagement in Fragile States and Situations,
the DAC’s policy response to weak and fragile states,
which is actively supported by the German government
through the BMZ, has entered a new phase.
With a view to implementing the Principles, the German
government intends to promote the ‘Whole-of-
Government’ approach in order to ensure that civilian
measures aimed at the establishment and stabilization
of public institutions are not regarded purely
as a peripheral issue and the sole domain of development
workers. WBGU endorses this approach and
recommends that the German government pursue
this course resolutely and bring appropriate influence
to bear on the EU’s Common Foreign and Security
Policy as well. So far, the discussions have centred
primarily on issues concerning the relative significance
and sequencing of military and development
policy measures. Environmental risks, on the other
hand, barely feature in this debate, despite the fact
that climate change is becoming increasingly apparent
and will require comprehensive adaptation measures
in areas such as agriculture, the financial sector
and infrastructure, i.e. beyond the purview of the
‘classic’ ministerial portfolio for the environment.
WBGU therefore recommends that in the ongoing
debate about the conceptual development and
practical implementation of the ‘Whole-of-Government’
approach, the security and development policy
relevance of climate change and the associated environmental
changes be emphasized, thus further sharpening
the profile of the DAC process. An intervention
policy which does not take account, in its planning,
of the increasing pressure on weak and fragile
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