World in Transition: Climate Change as a Security Risk - WBGU

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7 Hotspots of climate change
GDP grew on average by 2.1 per cent annually. Real
growth was particularly strong in agriculture, where
it was driven primarily by animal production. Economic
growth has improved the income situation
of all population groups; nevertheless, income disparities
in Brazil are among the largest in the world
(UNDP, 2005b). Poverty in Brazil is concentrated
regionally in the dry north-east and the Amazon area
(Brazil, 2004). The situation is worst for the indigenous
population. The expansion of large cattle and
soya farms has led to a noticeable increase in violent
conflict and in expulsions of small farmers in the
Amazon region (CPT, 2007). But also the majority
of large landowners have no title to the land. Clearance
is usually carried out without regard to statutory
requirements, but the majority of these offences go
unpunished. These conflicts over land and resources
may increase as farmland is further expanded and as
a result of the effects of climate change.
Tensions are also to be expected in the Andean
countries, because significant migration from the
mountain regions to the Amazonian lowlands is taking
place, bringing with it the familiar consequences
of deforestation, minoritization and displacement of
indigenous peoples. This migration is directly or indirectly
encouraged by governments, for example by
stripping protected areas retrospectively of their status
in order to develop them for economic use. Since
the source areas of the most important Amazonian
rivers lie in the Andes, the destruction of the forest
in this part of the Amazon region has particularly
drastic consequences, influencing as it does the water
supply of the entire area, including the Brazilian lowlands.
While the measures taken by the Brazilian government
to protect the Amazon region from over-exploitation
of natural resources have improved, there are
still conflicts of goals between environmental plans
(protected areas) and plans for the energy and transport
sectors (building of hydropower plants, gas pipelines,
roads). After the deforestation rate rose very
sharply in 2002 and 2003, special measures for tackling
deforestation were agreed. However, only the
monitoring measures of the environment ministry
have so far been implemented. Improvements in the
awarding of land titles and in environmental impact
assessment have not yet been achieved. The range
and effectiveness of the government’s measures is
significantly compromised by general governance
weaknesses in the areas of rule of law and control
of corruption (World Bank, 2005b). However, the
government has for some years been attempting to
strengthen the state’s monopoly on the use of force
and improve adherence to the law in the region.
With the publication of the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment
Report, climate change has become an inter-
nal political issue. Brazil participated proactively and
constructively in international climate negotiations,
and the environment ministry subsequently took up
the issue with great resolve. Brazil is also involved
in regional cooperation on environmental policy and
is the strongest member of OTCA (Organização do
Tratado de Cooperação Amazônica), which focuses
on cooperation to ensure the sustainable development
of the Amazon region. With the transfer of the
permanent secretariat to Brasilia in 2003, Brazil has
assumed responsibility for the further development
of this organization.
7.10.3
Conclusions
If the changes anticipated for the Amazon region as
a result of global warming occur, life in the region
will become more and more difficult, not only for
small farmers. It will no longer be possible to use the
Amazon region as a location for expansion of largescale
agriculture or as a destination area for povertyinduced
migration. At the same time yields in the traditional,
better developed agricultural regions in the
south, the centre and the south-east of Brazil will fall
as a result of the reduced availability of water and
higher temperatures. This may lead to a crisis situation
developing in the agricultural sector, because
soya and coffee are the third and fifth most important
export goods respectively. In consequence, struggles
over the allocation of land could intensify and
the already high potential for violence could increase
further. Scope for conserving biodiversity in the Amazon
region would narrow even more.
In addition, the role of Brazil as a stabilizing factor
and leading regional economy in Latin America could
be weakened. Brazil is one of the few countries that
perceives itself as a democracy and, despite internal
tensions, it can ensure a relatively high degree of political
stability. It is an important partner of the OECD
in developing global solutions to problems and driving
forward global regimes. If the country is taken
unawares by the effects of climate change, it will have
significantly less capacity for attending to projects of
regional and global governance in addition to dealing
with internal crises. This is particularly important
because other Latin American countries will also be
significantly affected by climate change and might
turn to Brazil with requests for support (Section 6.9).
If Brazil were to give lower priority to the needs of
the Amazon region and world climate policy than to
short-term national trade and energy interests, this
would have a negative impact on its ability to prevent
or handle crises in the Amazon area.