World in Transition: Climate Change as a Security Risk - WBGU

Box 2.2-1
Worldwatch Institute: Changing the oil
economy
(...) Oil saturates virtually every aspect of modern life, and
the well-being of every individual, community, and nation
on the planet is linked to our oil-based energy culture. Even
as oil has become indispensable, however, its continued use
has begun to impose unacceptable costs and risks.
The costs and risks of using oil can be grouped into three
broad categories. First, oil threatens global economic security
because it is a finite resource for which no clear succes-
no means trivial; in fact it is of crucial significance for
its analysis of the security threats to be expected in
the context of climate change, as well as for the policy
recommendations the analysis generates. WBGU
supports the comprehensive concept of security as
one that does justice to the complexity of the causes
of violence and war in a globalized world. Given
the kinds of global environmental change that are
expected to occur, expanding the traditional concept
of security allows the analysis of risks to be extended
to include environmentally induced risks. Within this,
WBGU’s focus is above all on those environmental
problems that are generated by advancing climate
change and the resulting environmental degradation.
The aim of this report is to analyse whether these
ecological impacts might lead to security problems
– violent conflict in particular – and how this might
occur.
WBGU is particularly interested in gaining more
knowledge about risks and dynamics that threaten
to trigger the destabilization of collective actors, i.e.
societies and states. The type of conflict most likely to
occur in the context of climate change are ‘ new wars’.
These are characterized by the fact that they combine
elements of organized crime and human rights violations
with a generally international dimension, and
that the distinction between public and private and
political and economic actors is increasingly blurred
(van Creveld, 1998; Kaldor, 1999). The aim of undertaking
an analysis of the complex factors and mechanisms
that may lead to conflict in the context of climate
change is to generate knowledge on which to
base appropriate action, so that future regional and
global instabilities can be prevented. A comprehensive
concept of security in the sense of human security
is of limited usefulness to this end; furthermore,
it is hard to capture analytically. However, this by no
means implies a departure from the normative aim
of placing the protection of people above the integrity
of states. Instead, it is the intention of WBGU
to take account of scientific possibilities and political
WBGU’s aims and use of terms 2.3
sor has been developed and because the gap between supply
and demand appears to be growing, making the world
vulnerable to serious economic shocks. Second, oil’s value
as a commodity undermines civil security by compromising
efforts to achieve peace, civil order, human rights, and
democracy in many regions. Third, oil threatens climate
stability because its use, which is accelerating, accounts
for a major share of global greenhouse gas emissions and
because its overwhelming dominance of the transportation
fuel market makes it difficult to replace. In short, where oil
once helped ensure human security, it now makes us more
vulnerable (...).
Source: quoted from Prugh et al., 2005
circumstances and requirements in the furtherance
of a peaceful, global structural policy.
Up to now environmental problems have rarely
been the trigger for violent conflict. Even in the
future, it will not necessarily be the case that every
larger environmental problem will become a security
issue. Yet new and ever more compelling scientific
knowledge about climate change and the simultaneous
lack of effective mitigation and adaptation strategies
make it increasingly clear that far-reaching consequences
for individuals and society are expected to
be seen in the future. This brings with it issues of a
highly explosive nature for conflict and security policy
that may even lead to warfare. The existing security
strategies of the EU, USA, NATO – and Germany
as well – pay insufficient attention to these
developments. This does not mean that environmentally
induced security risks can be eliminated using
military means. What it does mean, however, is that,
alongside preventive measures in the sphere of environmental,
development and research policy, foreign
and security policy considerations and options for
action will acquire increasing importance. With this
analysis of climate-induced environmental change
and its destabilizing impacts on international policy,
WBGU seeks to draw attention to the essential
nature and urgency of this set of issues in the realm
of foreign and security policy, and thus to contribute
towards shaping a peaceful and sustainable world.
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