World in Transition: Climate Change as a Security Risk - WBGU

tation, among decision-makers and the general
public. Capacity-building is also required to enable
or facilitate international networking between
experts in the developing countries and their
counterparts abroad and encourage collaboration
on projects and databases. In future, these should
be priority areas for development cooperation in
the field of water resources management. Adaptation
to climate change should be established as an
ongoing process, and should not simply entail the
implementation of one-off measures.
Promoting international cooperation on the provision
of information: In order to adapt water
resources management to the impacts of climate
change, it is essential, as a basis for planning, to
draw not only on past data, such as mean precipitation
rates or variability in precipitation and runoff,
but also on the findings of regional models
which take account of climate change. High priority
should therefore be given to regular provision
and evaluation of current scientific data on
the regional impacts of climate change on water
availability. International cooperation is vital here,
especially for the developing countries. One issue
which should be explored is whether a universally
accessible database could be established and maintained
by the international community, containing
interpreted regional data as a basis for water
resources management. The provision of information
is also important for transboundary rivers
and lakes: reliable data on water availability and
use are a key prerequisite for the development of
cooperative transboundary water resources management
and thus the avoidance of water conflicts
and crises.
Reorienting water management towards action
under increased uncertainty: For effective action
to be taken, there is often no need to await the
development of appropriate forecasting models.
Measures which improve adaptation to existing
climate variability can often be applied to adaptation
to future climate impacts as well. This is especially
true of measures to improve the efficiency of
water management, local water storage capacity,
systems for the distribution of stored water, and
demand management. Integrated water resources
management offers a suitable framework here
(Box 6.2-1).
Gearing agriculture to climate change
Strengthening the agricultural sector through development
cooperation in light of climate change: The
anticipated pressure on agriculture, especially in
many developing countries, should be taken into
greater account in development cooperation, with
higher priority being given to this sector. First, as
The window of opportunity for climate security: 2007–2020 10.3
a basis for effective policies to mitigate climate
impacts and other global environmental changes,
viable scenarios and forecasting are required
for the agricultural sector which must take adequate
account of these factors. At present, however,
climate change is not being considered to an
adequate extent as a factor in the FAO scenarios
and forecasts on food production trends and food
security, and this could result in the wrong conclusions
being drawn in long-term analyses. The German
federal government should therefore work
pro-actively within the FAO Council for a greater
focus on global environmental changes and especially
climate change and provide more support
for relevant research projects. At the same time,
in view of the anticipated drop in agricultural
yields, development cooperation should focus
to a greater extent on the development of rural
regions. However, it is not enough simply to invest
more resources in strengthening the agricultural
sector. Instead, a new qualitative focus is required
in agricultural development strategies: only if climate-induced
risks are anticipated in programme
development and implementation, for example,
can agricultural development strategies be successful
in the long term. In particular, the growing
tension between food security, nature conservation
and the cultivation of energy crops must be
considered. In WBGU’s view, more intensive production
of energy crops should certainly not take
priority over nature conservation and food security
(WBGU, 2004). The promotion of a robust
agricultural sector must therefore always go hand
in hand with the development of other sectors,
for in view of the anticipated drop in agricultural
yields, a diversified and therefore less crisis-prone
economy is required.
Reforming world agricultural markets: The reform
of world agricultural markets should be pursued
vigorously in order to improve opportunities for
market access and create market incentives for
production in the developing countries. Given the
uncertain prospects of a successful outcome to the
World Trade Organization’s Doha Round, whose
key elements include the dismantling of barriers
to entry to the industrialized countries’ agricultural
markets and the removal of subsidies that
are harmful to development, this is a particularly
urgent message. However, liberalization is likely
to lead to price increases which, in the short to
medium term, could have an extremely adverse
effect on Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries
(LIFDCs), greatly impairing their long-term prospects
of economic and social development. This
would further reduce these countries’ opportunities
to adapt to climate change and mitigate
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