World in Transition: Climate Change as a Security Risk - WBGU

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XVI Figures Figure 8.1-2 Climate status and Climate future ...................................................................................161 Figure 8.1-3 Security risks associated with climate change: Selected hotspots ................................163 Figure 8.1-4 Consequences of climate change for ecosystems and economic sectors at different levels of warming .............................................................................................. 164 Figure 8.2-1 Emissions reductions required in order to avoid global warming of more than 2 °C ..............................................................................................................................165 Figure 8.3-1 Rough breakdown of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2004 ...................................172
Acronyms and Abbreviations AA Auswärtiges Amt [Federal Foreign Office, Germany] AIDS Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome APEC Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation ASEAN Association of South-East Asian Nations BMBF Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung [Federal Ministry of Education and Research, Germany] BMU Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit [Federal Ministry for Environment, Nature Conservation and Reactor Safety, Germany] BMZ Bundesministerium für wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung [Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, Germany] BNE Bruttonationaleinkommen CBD Convention on Biological Diversity CDM Clean Development Mechanism (Kyoto Protocol) CEC Central and Eastern European Countries CFU Carbon Finance Unit (World Bank) CGIAR Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research CIESIN Center for International Earth Science Information Network (University Columbia) CILSS Comité Inter Etats de Lutte Contre la Sécheresse dans le Sahel COMCAD Center on Migration, Citizenship and Development (Universität Bielefeld) COP Conference of the Parties COSIMO Conflict Simulation Model (HIIK) CRED Collaborating Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (WHO) CSCE Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe CSD Commission on Sustainable Development (UN) DAC Development Assistance Committee (OECD) DIE Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik [German Development Institute, Bonn] DR-CAFTA Dominican Republic – Central American Free Trade Agreement EACH-FOR Environmental Change and Forced Migration Scenarios (EU Research Project) ECOMAN Environmental Change Consensus Building and Resource Management in the Horn of Africa (Nachfolgeprojekt ENCOP) ECONILE Environment and Cooperation in the Nile Basin (ENCOP Project) ECOSOC Economic and Social Council (UN) EMP Europäisch-Mediterrane Partnerschaft ENCOP Environment and Conflicts Project (ETH Zurich, Swisspeace, Bern) ENSO El Niño and Southern Oscillation ENVSEC Environment Security Initiative (UNDP, UNEP, OSZE) ETS European Emissions Trading System EU European Union EWC International Conference on Early Warning (UN) FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FEMA Federal Emergency Management Administration (USA)
Page 1: Climate Change as a Security Risk G
Page 4 and 5: Members of the German Advisory Coun
Page 6 and 7: German Advisory Council on Global C
Page 8 and 9: VI Council Staff and Acknowledgment
Page 10 and 11: VIII Contents 3.3.2 Economic factor
Page 12 and 13: X Contents 6.5.4.1 Avoiding environ
Page 14 and 15: XII Contents 10.3.2 Climate policy
Page 16 and 17: Tables Table 2.2-1 Main differences
Page 20 and 21: XVIII Acronyms and Abbreviations FI
Page 23 and 24: A new security policy challenge Sum
Page 25 and 26: ilization, the collapse of social s
Page 27 and 28: Six threats to international stabil
Page 29 and 30: Fostering a cooperative setting for
Page 31 and 32: firmed by the European Council, a b
Page 33 and 34: Initiative 8: Managing migration th
Page 35: which are not should satisfy the
Page 38 and 39: 16 1 Introduction the present state
Page 41 and 42: Broadening the concept of security
Page 43 and 44: Messner, 2004; Klingebiel and Roehd
Page 45: Box 2.2-1 Worldwatch Institute: Cha
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46 4 Rising conflict risks due to s
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56 5 Impacts of climate change on t
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6.1 Methodology 6.1.1 Selection and
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6.2 Conflict constellation: ‘Clim
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available would be sufficient to co
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Demand-side dynamics, e.g. - Popula
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Box 6.2-2 Dams and conflict Many of
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6.2.3.1 Glacier retreat, water cris
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the Amu Darya, flow through the ter
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Managing demand-side dynamics WBGU
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6.3 Conflict constellation: ‘Clim
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ductivity is likely to decline worl
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Regional production - Local environ
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Box 6.3-1 Examples of destabilizati
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no longer adapt quickly enough to c
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World Trade Organization (WTO), the
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Although the special vulnerability
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O’Leary believes that a raised cr
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Figure 6.4-3 Conflict constellation
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A marked increase in social unrest
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6.4.3.2 Hurricane risks in the Gulf
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A Category Six hurricane hits Houst
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Box 6.5-1 Migration - definitions a
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Figure 6.5-1 Conflict constellation
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differing challenges to the societi
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Fictitious confrontation scenario:
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tions, this has already given rise
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programme that is making a signific
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conflict (Geissler, 1999; Phuong, 2
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132 7 Hotspots of climate change It
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134 7 Hotspots of climate change de
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136 7 Hotspots of climate change 7.
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138 7 Hotspots of climate change ex
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140 7 Hotspots of climate change re
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142 7 Hotspots of climate change (G
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144 7 Hotspots of climate change mo
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146 7 Hotspots of climate change im
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148 7 Hotspots of climate change in
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150 7 Hotspots of climate change Hu
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152 7 Hotspots of climate change In
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154 7 Hotspots of climate change ra
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156 7 Hotspots of climate change GD
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158 8 Climate change as a driver of
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178 9 Research recommendations Tipp
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180 9 Research recommendations toge
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182 9 Research recommendations 2020
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184 9 Research recommendations ture
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186 9 Research recommendations wate
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188 9 Research recommendations tion
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190 10 Recommendations for action t
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192 10 Recommendations for action b
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194 10 Recommendations for action f
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196 10 Recommendations for action a
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198 10 Recommendations for action d
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200 10 Recommendations for action A
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204 10 Recommendations for action s
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206 10 Recommendations for action G
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208 10 Recommendations for action 1
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212 10 Recommendations for action n
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Abel, W (1974) Massenarmut und Hung
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BMU (Bundesministerium für Umwelt,
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36. University Amsterdam, Faculteit
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for Action. Global Commission on In
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library.fes.de/pdf-fi les/stabsabte
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- a review’. In Kreimer, A, Arnol
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ics in the Southern Brazilian Amazo
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No. 113. UNHCR Evaluation and Polic
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Stockle, C O, Dyke, P T, Williams,
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WBGU (German Advisory Council on Gl
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Action Plan ‘Crisis Prevention’
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er countries in 2001 at the 4th Min
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focuses on the security needs of hu
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towards the future as plausible ‘
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Index A Aceh 107 Africa 70-71, 72,
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Framework Convention on Climate Cha
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208, 211 security strategies 19, 21
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