World in Transition: Climate Change as a Security Risk - WBGU

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7 Hotspots of climate change
Hurricanes already frequently cause considerable
loss of life and property; a single event can often
result in more than 1,000 deaths and cause damage
of over US$1,000 million. Examples are Hurricane
Mitch in Nicaragua and Honduras, which claimed
over 18,000 lives, the regular storm and flood disasters
in Haiti and Hurricane Katrina in the USA,
which took 1,322 lives (CRED, 2006). Such disasters
have a major impact on the development of the
affected regions; some have also triggered conflict
(Section 3.2.2).
In addition, hurricanes represent a major threat to
the oil and gas infrastructure in the United States part
of the Gulf of Mexico. There are over 800 manned
drilling platforms in the area, connected by an elaborate
pipeline network to the refineries on the coast
of the United States. The refineries on the Gulf of
Mexico are also used to process foreign oil of inferior
quality. The region therefore plays a crucial role in
the United States’ supply of fuel and gas. Past natural
disasters, in particular the hurricane season of 2005,
caused major damage to the oil and gas infrastructure
and led to losses of extraction, transport and
refinery capacities that lasted for many months. As
a result, the USA had to resort to using strategic oil
reserves in order to sustain the country’s energy supply
(Bamberger and Kumis, 2005; Energy and Environmental
Analysis, 2005).
The sea-level rise will particularly affect the flat
coastal areas of the United States and Mexico along
the Gulf of Mexico (IPCC, 2007b). In contrast to
the situation in the Pacific, sea-level rise does not
threaten the very existence of island states in the
Caribbean, but it will have serious consequences for
both coasts and islands in the region. These effects
will include flooding of coastal plains and increased
coastal erosion.
In the Caribbean it is likely, in addition, that precipitation
variability will increase markedly, with
periods of drought and intense precipitation events
representing the two extremes. The effects of intense
precipitation events can be as destructive as those of
hurricanes: during such an event in Venezuela in 1999,
30,000 people lost their lives as a result of landslides
and floods (CRED, 2006). Droughts may also become
a more significant problem in parts of the region, and
may, due to non-sustainable land use – particularly
in Honduras, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Cuba and the
Dominican Republic – result in increased soil degradation
and eventually desertification (USDA, 1998;
MA, 2005b). The consequences in many places will
include additional agricultural losses and increased
risk of disasters (Section 6.4.2.1). Grain harvests could
fall by up to 30 per cent by 2080 (IPCC, 2007b).
7.8.2
Political and economic situation in the region
According to the Human Development Index, the
USA, Barbados, Costa Rica, Saint Kitts and Nevis,
the Bahamas, Cuba, Mexico, Panama and Trinidad
and Tobago are highly developed (UNDP, 2005b).
Almost all other countries in the region lie in medium
positions on the index. Haiti is the only country in the
region with a low index.
Economically the region is very diverse: the USA
is the largest economy in the world with a very high
per capita income. Neighbouring Mexico is an emerging
country with relatively strong economic power.
Venezuela’s affluence is due largely to its major oil
reserves. For the majority of countries in Central
America, the export of clothing is of great economic
importance. The proportion of export revenue attributable
to this sector is 28 per cent in Guatemala, 50.2
per cent in El Salvador and 59.9 per cent in Honduras.
Costa Rica and Mexico also export large quantities
of electronic goods (WTO, 2006). The USA is the
most important trading partner for almost all countries
in the region; it is likely that economic linkages
will increase further under existing and future free
trade agreements.
In some Caribbean island states (Dominican
Republic, Barbados, Saint Kitts and Nevis and others),
tourism has become a crucial economic factor.
Nevertheless, agriculture remains extremely important
in most Caribbean and Central American countries,
providing the majority of the population with
a basic income or a livelihood through subsistence
production. In the Central American countries, in particular,
wealth is very unequally distributed: according
to their Gini coefficients, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua,
Colombia and Panama have a high inequality
of income distribution (CIA, 2006).
For many inhabitants of the region, emigration
is an attractive economic option. In many countries
remittances from migrants have become an
important economic factor. In Haiti such remittances
account for more than half of GDP, while in
Jamaica and Honduras the figure is 17 per cent and
16 per cent respectively. Mexico is the largest recipient
of remittances from abroad in the world, receiving
US$21.8 thousand million annually (Fajnzylber
and López, 2006). The most important destination
region for Latin American migrants is still the USA.
The USA’s increasing attempts to close its borders to
migration from Latin America, for example by erecting
a border wall to deter illegal migrants, fuel discord
between it and its neighbours (HIIK, 2006).
Various conflicts, some of them armed, are taking
place in the region. Colombia has for many decades
witnessed violent conflict between left-wing rebel