World in Transition: Climate Change as a Security Risk - WBGU

Figures
Figure 1 Security risks associated with climate change: Selected hotspots ....................................4
Figure 3.2-1 World map of environmental conflicts (1980–2005): Causes and intensity ...................32
Figure 3.2-2 Environmental conflicts in Central America and the Caribbean (1980–2005) . ............32
Figure 3.2-3 Environmental conflicts in Africa (1980–2005) ................................................................33
Figure 3.2-4 Storm and flood disasters with destabilizing and conflict-inducing consequences ......34
Figure 3.2-5 Predicted likelihood of the emergence of new conflicts within five years in
relation to per capita income ..............................................................................................36
Figure 4.2-1 Weak and fragile states: A global overview ......................................................................46
Figure 4.3-1 China‘s, India’s, US and EU shares of global primary energy consumption and
global energy-related CO 2 emissions .................................................................................49
Figure 5.1-1 Global-mean temperature development over land and sea up to 2006 based on the
NASA data set ......................................................................................................................56
Figure 5.1-2 Linear temperature trends from measurements on land in the period 1975–2004 .......57
Figure 5.1-3 Climatic water balance mean for the period 1961–1990 . .................................................58
Figure 5.1-4 Relative changes in precipitation towards the end of the century as compared
to 1990 under SRES scenario A1B ....................................................................................60
Figure 5.1-5 Percentage change in maximum dry periods under scenario A1B in a simulation
by the Max Planck Institute (MPI), Hamburg .................................................................61
Figure 5.1-6 Future dynamics of drought risk ........................................................................................61
Figure 5.1-7 Percentage changes in annual extreme precipitation under scenario A1B ..................62
Figure 5.1-8 Risk from tropical storms: storm tracks and intensities over the past 150 years ..........62
Figure 5.1-9 Global sea-level rise as measured by tide gauge (brown) and satellite (black) ...........63
Figure 5.2-1 Projections of populations suffering severe water stress under three of the
SRES scenarios ....................................................................................................................65
Figure 5.2-2 Current global distribution of the water scarcity indicator (Box 5.2-1) ........................66
Figure 5.2-3 Terrestrial ecosystems that will be affected by changes in the event of a global
average temperature increase of 3 °C (based on HADCM-GCM) ...............................67
Figure 5.2-4 Global soil degradation by severity and rate of progression ..........................................68
Figure 5.2-5 Share of agriculture in GDP and per capita income (2004) .......................................... 70
Figure 5.3-1 Map with some of the tipping elements in the climate system discussed in the text ...73
Figure 6.2-1 Water use by sector ..............................................................................................................79
Figure 6.2-2 Areas of ‘physical’ and ‘economic’ water scarcity ............................................................81
Figure 6.2-3 Conflict constellation ‘Climate-induced degradation of freshwater resources’:
Key factors and interactions ...............................................................................................83
Figure 6.3-1 Global food production 1960–2003 ...................................................................................93
Figure 6.3-2 Conflict constellation: ‘Climate-induced decline in food production’:
Key factors and interactions ...............................................................................................97
Figure 6.4-1 Tropical cyclone threat to urban agglomerations ...........................................................105
Figure 6.4-2 Characteristic time sequence of disaster-induced conflict mechanisms ......................108
Figure 6.4-3 Conflict constellation: ‘Climate-induced increase in storm and flood disasters’:
Key factors and interactions .............................................................................................109
Figure 6.5-1 Conflict constellation: ‘Environmentally induced migration’:
Key factors and interactions .............................................................................................119
Figure 8.1-1 Conflict constellations as drivers of international destabilization .............................. 160