World in Transition: Climate Change as a Security Risk - WBGU

Climate change as a driver of
social destabilization and threat
to international security
The discussion in Chapters 5 to 7 has shown that climate
change is altering the natural systems that support
human societies worldwide. These transformation
processes translate into the four conflict constellations
set out in Sections 6.2–6.5, in a manner
moderated by the specific geographical and social
conditions. Those conflict constellations show how
climate change can become a driver of social destabilization
in several regions of the world. The following
analysis in Section 8.1 highlights structural attributes
of these climate-induced conflicts that clearly differ
from the conflicts surrounding environmental degradation
and resource scarcity explored in Chapter 3.
Given the importance of climate policy for international
security, Section 8.2 discusses the prospects
for effective climate policy in the coming two decades
– the time remaining for the international community
to avert dangerous climate change. Forecasting
international policy processes is extremely difficult.
Hence three scenarios are presented that outline
possible and conceivable futures. This instrument
makes it possible to gain a glimpse of the bifurcations
in development trajectories facing climate policy
in the coming years. Finally, Section 8.3 examines
the possible impacts upon the international system
of the social destabilization dynamics previously analysed.
The analysis reveals that, above and beyond
the regional crises that climate change will probably
induce, challenges to the global governance system
will arise that may undermine international stability
and security.
8.1
Climate-induced conflict constellations: Analysis
and findings
8.1.1
Key factors determining the emergence and
amplification of conflicts
The analysis of the four conflict constellations driven
by climate change, undertaken in Chapter 6, reveals
the processes of social destabilization induced by climate
change and the associated patterns of conflict,
and thus provides the basis for an assessment of the
various influences and key factors in terms of their
conflict relevance (Table 8.1-1). Some of the key
factors can be influenced by political action, which
makes them important starting points for the recommendations
for action presented in Chapter 10.
State constitution, political stability
The constitution of a state (democratic, autocratic)
does not, per se, appear to have any direct impact
upon its coping capacities in situations of crisis or
conflict. Nonetheless, societies in transition from
authoritarian to democratic forms are particularly
susceptible to crisis and conflict. Moreover, analysis
of the ‘Climate-induced decline in food production’
and ‘Climate-induced increase in storm and flood
disasters’ conflict constellations shows that disasters
regularly heighten dissatisfaction with a government
perceived to be illegitimate, especially in situations
where there is a pressing need for action. Environmentally
induced social challenges or even destabilization
can thus become catalysts for processes of
delegitimation of governments, and may therefore
contribute to an escalation of conflict to the point at
which political order collapses. This finding is relevant
to African countries, most of which are in such
phases of transition; these countries will be affected
by climate change and their societies will come under
pressure to adapt. This nexus may also become relevant
to China.
Governance structures
The factor of governance is paramount in all conflict
constellations. Whether climate-induced pressures
upon societies erupt into crisis and conflict depends
primarily upon the performance and problem-solving
capacity of the states in question. A confluence
of weak state institutions with processes of social
overstretch induced by climate change thus harbours
great potential for conflict. Building and strengthening
national and international governance structures
(developing viable administrative structures,
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