World in Transition: Climate Change as a Security Risk - WBGU

Conflict constellations in selected hotspots
Climate-induced degradation
of freshwater resources
Climate-induced increase
in storm and flood disasters
cate a decline in freshwater availability together
with a decline of farmland and shortened crop
maturation periods caused by heat stress (IPCC,
2007b). In the Himalayas, increased glacier melt
will cause more mudflows and landslides, destroying
regional infrastructure and greatly hampering
the external provision of supplies to this mountain
region.
Scale: The potential for crisis and the number of
people affected will both reach unprecedented
levels worldwide. Global population amounts to
around 6.6 thousand million people today, and
they are exposed in different ways to the consequences
of climate change. Coastal communities,
for instance, are affected particularly: In 1995
some 60 million people lived within the 1-metre
elevation zone and 275 million within the 5-metre
zone above mean sea level. Projections of population
growth indicate that these figures will rise by
the end of the 21st century to 130 million (1-metre
zone) and 410 million (5-metre zone) (WBGU,
2006). The densely populated major delta regions
of South, East and South-East Asia (e.g. Ganges-
Climate-induced conflict constellations: Analysis and findings 8.1
Climate-induced decline
in food production
Environmentally-induced
migration
Hotspot
Figure 8.1-3
Security risks associated with climate change: Selected hotspots. The map only shows the regions which are dealt with in this
report and which could develop into crisis hotspots.
Source: WBGU
Brahmaputra or Zhujiang) will be exposed to a
particularly high flood risk (IPCC, 2007b).
Recurrence and a greater frequency of extreme
events can undermine all development efforts and
progress in a region. Models now indicate that in
the cities of North America already affected in the
past by heatwaves, the frequency of such events
will rise to such a degree that the over-65s in particular
will be exposed to an increased mortality
risk (IPCC, 2007b). A greater frequency of floods
and drought will pose particular risks to people
dependent upon subsistence farming in lower latitudes
(IPCC, 2007b), i.e. especially in Africa, parts
of Asia and South America.
Propagation of conflict constellations beyond the
affected region: Environmental migration is a
key mechanism here. It can be assumed that the
number of migrants moving away from areas particularly
affected by climate change will increase in
future and that this may destabilize neighbouring
regions. Moreover, the area immediately affected
by the consequences of climate change can also
expand. A poleward shift in hurricane activity is
to be expected, as the higher sea temperatures
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