World in Transition: Climate Change as a Security Risk - WBGU

9.1
Understanding the climate-security nexus –
fundamentals
9.1.1
Climate research
A number of key statements on human-induced climate
change have attained the status of certain knowledge
in climate research today. This includes the fact
that human activities greatly increase the concentration
of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, that this
has already brought about marked global warming,
and that, unless mitigation measures are put in place,
it will lead to even greater warming in future. Many
questions, notably regarding changes in precipitation
distribution, extreme events and regional manifestations
of climate change, remain unanswered, making
it necessary to step up basic research on climate
change.
A report such as this on ‘Climate change as a
security risk’, however, cannot and should not recommend
a programme of general climate research.
WBGU therefore proposes recommendations for
research only in areas where new knowledge can
contribute to improving adaptation and conflict prevention,
especially in relation to the conflict constellations
analysed in this report.
Sea level
To enable successful and cost-effective adaptation
in terms of coastal protection measures, there is a
need to reduce uncertainties regarding future projections
of sea-level rise. Inadequate understanding
of the dynamics of continental ice sheets constitutes
a major part of this uncertainty. Climate impact
research should give greater priority to investigating
the regional impacts of changes in sea level on
coastal areas (e.g. stability of beaches and other types
of coast, risk to valuable ecosystems such as mangroves
and coral reefs, flood risk to infrastructure
and human settlements, especially in densely populated
urban agglomerations).
Research recommendations 9
Tropical storms
One debate currently taking place within the research
community relates to the possible future dynamics
of storm intensity and the potential expansion of
the geographical range of tropical storms. Research
in this field is still in its infancy, because only a few
studies (most of which are very recent) have hitherto
focused on this topic. There are discrepancies
between the theory (which predicts only a slight
increase in the intensity of tropical storms as a result
of climatic warming) and the considerable increase
that has already been observed. The spatial resolution
of current global climate models is generally too
limited to be able to simulate tropical storms realistically.
Reliable projections are therefore not available
at the present time.
Other extreme weather events
The incidence of droughts, intense precipitation
events or severe storms is crucial in terms of the
impact of climate change on human activities. At the
same time, however, this is a topic associated with
a particularly high level of uncertainty. The reason
for this is that such extreme events are often highly
localized and occur infrequently (which makes it
difficult to identify trends in the observation data),
and that extreme atmospheric conditions are particularly
closely associated with non-linear physical
mechanisms. A climate research programme focusing
on extreme weather events is needed in order to
improve estimations of potential risk.
Mountain glaciers
Predictions concerning the dynamics of glaciers continue
to be dogged by major shortcomings. Reliable
projections of the future development of glacier
masses and the amount of discharge from glacial rivers
are needed, especially for regions of the world
where glaciers play an important role in the supply
of water. A global overview should be compiled of
the regions and towns that are at risk in this regard.
Other risks arising as a result of changes in mountain
glaciers (e.g. glacial lake outbursts) also need to be
better observed and researched.