World in Transition: Climate Change as a Security Risk - WBGU

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192 10 Recommendations for action bouts in order to avoid security-relevant climate impacts. If this window of opportunity is missed, climate-induced social crises and security problems are very likely to occur in the subsequent decades. Table 10.3-1 depicts three types of initiatives. Firstly, efforts to stabilize or promote a cooperative international environment and strengthen the UN are important (Initiatives 1 and 2). A particular challenge is that from now to 2020 – the window of opportunity for the development and implementation of an effective global climate policy – turbulence and tensions may well arise in the international arena as a result of the emergence of China and, in future, India as key actors in global governance (Section 4.3). There will only be a viable prospect of achieving significant advances in international climate policy if this fundamental shift in global power relations takes place without major conflicts and geopolitical rivalries between the ‘old’ and the ‘new’ world powers. Secondly, initiatives to abate climate change and avoid its dangerous impacts are required (Initiatives 3–5). Successful mitigation strategies will therefore act as preventive security policy measures as well. Effective climate policy can help avert international crises and conflicts in future. The UN report Confronting Climate Change (UN, 2007) refers in this context to strategies aimed at ‘avoiding the unmanageable’. Thirdly, adaptation strategies are crucial, especially in the developing countries, also in preparation for the anticipated increase in migration processes (Initiatives 6–9). These initiatives must also address the already unavoidable impacts of climate change, described in the UN report Confronting Climate Change as measures aimed at ‘managing the unavoidable’ (UN, 2007). They must include the establishment of global early warning systems. This package of initiatives shows that climate change as a security risk poses a challenge not only to German, European and international environmental and security policy. Almost every department of government has a role to play in averting the national and international crises and security risks that will otherwise result from climate change. 10.3.1 Fostering a cooperative setting for a multipolar world 10.3.1.1 Initiative 1: Shaping global political change The global economic and political power shifts which will result from the rise of China and India in particular are likely to trigger major changes in international relations. There are many signs at present that China and India have good prospects of establishing themselves as world powers alongside the USA. This is likely to weaken and perhaps even end the USA’s dominance of the unipolar world order which has developed since the end of the Cold War. Under these circumstances, major turbulence can be expected in world politics. Although this may not necessary lead to military conflicts between major powers or their proxies, there is a risk that the present multilateral institutional architecture could become destabilized, making international cooperation more difficult and thus creating security risks. In order to be prepared for this turbulence and shape it in a constructive and peaceful way, it is essential to recognise and respond to the global trends in time. However, insisting on the global political status quo is both unrealistic and counterproductive. If a reemergence of confrontational rivalry between major powers is to be avoided and the many global problems facing humankind are to be resolved, cooperative structures are required, now more than ever, to manage these shifts in power relations. Germany and the European Union could establish themselves as key drivers for change here and, in the process, cushion and limit their own relative loss of power. In order to move in this direction, the following structural mechanisms are important and must be taken into account (Kupchan et al., 2001; Messner, 2006). In dealings with the USA, it must be borne in mind that superpowers generally find it difficult to accept the need to move away from a strategy of ‘global hegemony’ towards a strategy of ‘shared global leadership’. In relations with China and India, it is essential to consider that these countries are now starting to perceive their rapidly expanding global significance and are therefore likely to have little interest in challenging conventional notions of sovereignty, the nation state and power politics. The recognition that in view of the nation state’s limited scope for action and today’s complex global interdependencies, the delegation of sovereignty does not necessarily entail forfeiting the capacity to manage one’s own affairs – an insight which, in Europe, has matured over several decades of European integration and in the course of the globalization debate – has yet to become widely accepted in China and India. Ultimately, the constructive multilateralism which is desired cannot, if it is to be effective, simply perpetuate the form of transatlantic multilateralism which has developed under US hegemony since 1945. In order to ensure the acceptance and, above all, the constructive participation of the rising world powers, a multilateral order is needed which is viewed as fair by all the world’s countries,
The window of opportunity for climate security: 2007–2020 10.3 Table 10.3-1 Overview of the nine initiatives proposed by WBGU for the mitigation of destabilization and conflict risks associated with climate change. Source: WBGU Relevant policy area Initiatives Section 10.3.1: Fostering a cooperative setting for a multipolar world Foreign policy Initiative 1 – Shaping global political change: Constructively managing the emergence of China and India as global powers alongside the USA; need for a strong European foreign policy; possible option to convene a world conference on geopolitical change; recognising climate change as a common threat to humankind. Foreign, environmental and development policy Initiative 2 – Reforming the United Nations: Gearing the present UN system more strongly towards prevention and a coordinated approach; refl ecting on the role and tasks of the UN Security Council; strengthening the United Nations’ capacities in the fi eld of environmental policy; establishing a Council on Global Development and Environment. Section 10.3.2: Climate policy as security policy I: Preventing confl ict by avoiding dangerous climate change Environmental and foreign policy Initiative 3 – Ambitiously pursuing international climate policy: Stipulating the 2 °C guard rail as an international standard; further developing the Kyoto Protocol; adopting ambitious reduction targets for industrialized countries (including the USA), and integrating the newly industrializing and developing countries; conserving natural carbon stocks. Environmental, energy, economic and research policy Environmental, development, research and economic policy Initiative 4 – Transforming energy systems in the EU: Strengthening the EU’s leading role; improving and implementing the Energy Policy for Europe; triggering an effi ciency revolution; expanding renewables. Initiative 5 – Developing mitigation strategies through partnerships: Establishing climate protection as a cross-cutting theme in development cooperation; agreeing decarbonization partnerships with newly industrializing countries (especially China and India); agreeing an innovation pact within the framework of G8+5. Section 10.3.3: Climate policy as security policy II: Preventing confl ict by implementing adaptation strategies Development and research policy Initiative 6 – Supporting adaptation strategies for developing countries: Industrialized countries must assist developing countries on adaptation and mitigation of climate impacts; priorities: devising specifi c strategies for developing regions particularly at risk (e.g. Africa); mitigating water crises; gearing the agricultural sector to climate change; strengthening disaster prevention. Security and development policy Initiative 7 – Stabilizing fragile states and weak states that are additionally threatened by climate change: Stabilization of weak and fragile states to be taken into account to a greater extent in the German Action Plan ‘Civilian Crisis Prevention, Confl ict Resolution and Post-Confl ict Peace-Building’; supporting and implementing the OECD’s working principles; expanding the ‘Whole-of-Government’ approach to encompass the environmental dimension; boosting the civil society potential of weak states in international forums and networks. Foreign, domestic and development policy Initiative 8 – Managing migration through cooperation and further developing international law: Developing comprehensive international strategies for migration; integrating migration policy into development cooperation; including environmentally induced migration in international cooperation; enshrining the protection of environmental migrants in international law; permitting no weakening of the existing protection regime; adopting measures supplementary to the existing refugee regime. Development and research policy Initiative 9 – Expanding global information and early warning systems: Actively supporting the development of a comprehensive global early warning system to provide information about all types of natural hazard, epidemics and technological risks, regional climate change and impacts, and environmental problems; improving the implementation of early warning information at national and local level. 193
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Climate Change as a Security Risk G
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Members of the German Advisory Coun
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German Advisory Council on Global C
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VI Council Staff and Acknowledgment
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VIII Contents 3.3.2 Economic factor
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X Contents 6.5.4.1 Avoiding environ
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XII Contents 10.3.2 Climate policy
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Tables Table 2.2-1 Main differences
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XVI Figures Figure 8.1-2 Climate st
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XVIII Acronyms and Abbreviations FI
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A new security policy challenge Sum
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ilization, the collapse of social s
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Six threats to international stabil
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Fostering a cooperative setting for
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firmed by the European Council, a b
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Initiative 8: Managing migration th
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which are not should satisfy the
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16 1 Introduction the present state
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Broadening the concept of security
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Messner, 2004; Klingebiel and Roehd
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Box 2.2-1 Worldwatch Institute: Cha
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26 3 Known conflict impacts of envi
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6.1 Methodology 6.1.1 Selection and
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6.2 Conflict constellation: ‘Clim
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available would be sufficient to co
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Demand-side dynamics, e.g. - Popula
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Box 6.2-2 Dams and conflict Many of
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6.2.3.1 Glacier retreat, water cris
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the Amu Darya, flow through the ter
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Managing demand-side dynamics WBGU
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6.3 Conflict constellation: ‘Clim
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ductivity is likely to decline worl
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Regional production - Local environ
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Box 6.3-1 Examples of destabilizati
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no longer adapt quickly enough to c
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World Trade Organization (WTO), the
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Although the special vulnerability
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O’Leary believes that a raised cr
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Figure 6.4-3 Conflict constellation
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A marked increase in social unrest
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6.4.3.2 Hurricane risks in the Gulf
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A Category Six hurricane hits Houst
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Box 6.5-1 Migration - definitions a
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Figure 6.5-1 Conflict constellation
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differing challenges to the societi
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Fictitious confrontation scenario:
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tions, this has already given rise
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programme that is making a signific
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conflict (Geissler, 1999; Phuong, 2
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132 7 Hotspots of climate change It
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134 7 Hotspots of climate change de
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136 7 Hotspots of climate change 7.
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138 7 Hotspots of climate change ex
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140 7 Hotspots of climate change re
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Page 237 and 238: Abel, W (1974) Massenarmut und Hung
Page 239 and 240: BMU (Bundesministerium für Umwelt,
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Index A Aceh 107 Africa 70-71, 72,
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Framework Convention on Climate Cha
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208, 211 security strategies 19, 21
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