World in Transition: Climate Change as a Security Risk - WBGU

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6 Conflict constellations
technical know-how to implement the project, it turns
to international organizations. At the world environmental
conference in 2025 it successfully seeks international
support for the erection of modern defence
works. Subsequent negotiations among donor countries
result in the initiation of a unique coastal protection
project costing US$40,000 million; the funding
is provided from the climate compensation fund
set up in 2018. The industrialized countries, as the
main emitters of global greenhouse gases, make payments
into this fund; the money is used to finance
adaptation measures in developing countries. This
process takes particular account of the Sundarbans,
which provide the west coast of Bangladesh with an
irreplaceable natural protective wall against tropical
cyclones. Reafforestation measures, laws against
illegal logging and a sustainable land utilization plan
contribute to the conservation of the ecosystem and
thus to coastal protection.
In the summer of 2038 Bangladesh is affected by
an unusually strong cyclone season. Within the space
of a few weeks a number of powerful cyclones strike
the coast of the Gulf of Bengal, causing widespread
devas tation. However, due to effective early warning
systems there are only a small number of deaths.
Despite this, the damage inflicted is severe, particularly
on the coast; thousands of environmental
migrants cannot return immediately to their villages
and must be accommodated in refugee camps in the
interior of the country. The government of Bangladesh
acts quickly; immediately after the disaster it
approaches the international community for support
in provi ding for the environmental migrants.
Although transport routes are blocked and the
number of people in need is high, efficient disaster
management plans and good cooperation between
the government, international organizations and
local contacts pay off – aid is quickly provided and
in the months that follow reconstruction gets quickly
under way. Nevertheless, an estimated one million
people, disheartened by the destruction and the continuing
threat of storm floods and cyclones in future,
attempt to cross the border into neighbouring, economically
prosperous India.
India has for years been concerned about the enormous
influx of illegal immigrants from Bangladesh,
and erects a high-technology fence almost 4000km
in length along the border. This attitude on India’s
part and its reluctance to enter into political dialogue
fuel a political conflict between the two neighbouring
countries that has been simmering for years.
The international community and the Association of
South-East Asian Nations, of which both countries
are associate members, is deeply concerned about
the security situation in the region.
Because India’s borders remain closed to Bengali
environmental migrants even in the face of na tural
disasters, the international community increases the
political pressure. After years of simmering conflict
this at last results in negotiations, and a strategy
paper on dealing with illegal migrants is published.
This includes agreements under which Bangladesh
undertakes to draw up plans for restricting emigration.
In return, India undertakes to support Bangladesh
with disaster prevention measures. The parties
to the negotiations also reach agreement on plans for
a transnationally coordinated coastal management
system and the drawing up of a joint emergency aid
strategy.
Under the eye of the United Nations implementation
of the agreements proceeds promptly in the
years that follow, which has the additional effect of
improving diplomatic relationships between the two
countries.
6.5.3.2
Environmentally induced migration and conflicts
in North Africa and neighbouring Mediterranean
countries
Background
The region comprises the countries of North Africa
which border on the Mediterranean ( Morocco, Algeria,
Tunisia, Libya and Egypt) and the Sahel zone (i.e.
primarily the countries of Mauritania, Mali, Niger,
Chad and Sudan, plus parts of Burkina Faso, Senegal,
Nigeria, and Ethiopia, and Eritrea and Djibouti). The
entire region is already beset by severe problems
including freshwater shortages, soil degradation and
desertification, whereby the situation is deteriorating
steadily as a result of climate change as manifested
especially by appreciable declines in precipitation
(Sections 5.2 and 7.2). Because of the Sahel’s location,
desertification and the effects associated with it
are particularly virulent there (Section 7.3).
A central factor in both the current and the future
problems of the region is the demographic trend:
all the countries named above currently have high
rates of population growth and urbanization. Migration
movements are already observable and take two
forms: there is, firstly, internal migration from rural
regions to the towns and cities, and secondly – and
increasingly – cross-border, northwards migration,
primarily of young people. North African countries
play a special role in migration movements on the
continent: they are themselves migration destinations
(for both internal and cross-border migrants),
but at the same time they are a transit area for people
from sub-Saharan Africa and Asia attempting
to reach Europe (transit migration). In certain loca-