World in Transition: Climate Change as a Security Risk - WBGU

More documents

Recommendations

Info

62 5 Impacts of climate change on the biosphere and human society Figure 5.1-7 Percentage changes in annual extreme precipitation under scenario A1B. Annual extreme precipitation is defined here as the maximum amount of precipitation in a 5-day period in a given year. The figure shows the percentage change in the 30-year means for the period 2071–2100 relative to the means for 1961–1990. Source: MPI, 2006 Tropical depression -50 -40 Tropical storm -30 -20 -10 Cat. 1 Cat. 2 -5 5 10 20 30 40 50 75 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 [%] Figure 5.1-8 Risk from tropical storms: storm tracks and intensities over the past 150 years. Source: WBGU, based on Rohde, 2006
Figure 5.1-9 Global sea-level rise as measured by tide gauge (brown) and satellite (black). Values are given as deviations relative to the 1990 sea level. The dotted lines show the various sealevel projections from the IPCC Third Assessment Report 2001 for comparison, together with the stated range of uncertainty. Source: Rahmstorf et al., 2007 role, such as water storage in artificial lakes and the use of ‘fossil’ water from underground aquifers for irrigation purposes. Since 1993, accurate satellite data relating to the sea level have become available, and these indicate a rise of around 3mm per year since that date (Fig. 5.1-9). In contrast to coastal tide gauge measurements, satellites provide global coverage and show interesting regional variations. There are some regions, for example, where the sea level is falling, e.g. in the area around the Maldives. However, given that the quantity of water in the Earth’s oceans is increasing due to meltwater input and the global average seawater temperature is becoming warmer, the global trend in the longer term is likely to override regional fluctuations and lead to a sealevel rise everywhere. The rise in sea level relative to coasts is a result of the absolute (as seen from satellites) local sea-level rise plus a contribution from uplift or subsidence of land masses. The latter phenomenon is largely an ongoing reaction to the retreat of the ice from the last ice age on the northern continents, and is therefore negligible in the tropics. The current rise in sea level is due in roughly equal measure to warming of the oceans (thermal expansion) and to meltwater input, although the exact contribution of each remains uncertain, and it also depends on the period under consideration. As regards future sea-level rise, there is particular uncertainty surrounding the contribution of melting continental ice masses. At the same time, however, this presents the greatest potential risk in the long term, because the quantities of water contained in the continental ice masses could cause the sea level to rise by up to 70m. Anthropogenic warming poses a particular threat to the Greenland ice sheet (complete melting of the Greenland ice sheet equates to a sea-level Sea level change [cm] 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 Satellite measurements Tide gauge data IPCC Scenarios Climate impacts upon human well-being and society 5.2 Range of uncertainty for IPCC Scenarios Range of uncertainty taking into account the effect of continental ice 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 rise of approx. 7m; see Section 5.3) and the West Antarctic ice sheet (sea-level equivalent approx. 6 m). The larger East Antarctic ice sheet is considered stable on the whole, at least for many centuries, even in the event of more dramatic warming. Without mitigation, a global sea-level rise of around half a metre by the year 2100 can be expected (IPCC, 2007a), and possibly significantly more (Rahmstorf, 2007). Over several centuries into the future, a sealevel rise of several metres is likely. In terms of pinpointing ‘hotspots’ of threat relating to sea-level rise, these would include low-lying islands and coastal regions (especially river deltas) on the one hand, and areas where sea-level rise and subsidence of the land mass have an additive effect. To some extent this also relates to anthropogenic subsidence of cities due to physical pressure from buildings and infrastructure and groundwater withdrawal. If the ocean currents change, additional dynamic sealevel changes may occur in some regions. In the event of a breakdown of the North Atlantic Current, the sea level along the northern Atlantic coast could rise by up to 1m. 5.2 Climate impacts upon human well-being and society The greater the changes in temperature, precipitation and sea level in a given region, the more keenly the impacts of climate change will be felt in terms of human well-being and society. Societies’ adaptive capacity also plays a major role, however. The less developed the country, the lower its adaptive capacity. Climate change will thus exacerbate existing pov- 63
Page 1:
Climate Change as a Security Risk G
Page 4 and 5:
Members of the German Advisory Coun
Page 6 and 7:
German Advisory Council on Global C
Page 8 and 9:
VI Council Staff and Acknowledgment
Page 10 and 11:
VIII Contents 3.3.2 Economic factor
Page 12 and 13:
X Contents 6.5.4.1 Avoiding environ
Page 14 and 15:
XII Contents 10.3.2 Climate policy
Page 16 and 17:
Tables Table 2.2-1 Main differences
Page 18 and 19:
XVI Figures Figure 8.1-2 Climate st
Page 20 and 21:
XVIII Acronyms and Abbreviations FI
Page 23 and 24:
A new security policy challenge Sum
Page 25 and 26:
ilization, the collapse of social s
Page 27 and 28:
Six threats to international stabil
Page 29 and 30:
Fostering a cooperative setting for
Page 31 and 32:
firmed by the European Council, a b
Page 33 and 34: Initiative 8: Managing migration th
Page 35: which are not should satisfy the
Page 38 and 39: 16 1 Introduction the present state
Page 41 and 42: Broadening the concept of security
Page 43 and 44: Messner, 2004; Klingebiel and Roehd
Page 45: Box 2.2-1 Worldwatch Institute: Cha
Page 48 and 49: 26 3 Known conflict impacts of envi
Page 64 and 65: 42 4 Rising conflict risks due to s
Page 78 and 79: 56 5 Impacts of climate change on t
Page 99 and 100: 6.1 Methodology 6.1.1 Selection and
Page 101 and 102: 6.2 Conflict constellation: ‘Clim
Page 103 and 104: available would be sufficient to co
Page 105 and 106: Demand-side dynamics, e.g. - Popula
Page 107 and 108: Box 6.2-2 Dams and conflict Many of
Page 109 and 110: 6.2.3.1 Glacier retreat, water cris
Page 111 and 112: the Amu Darya, flow through the ter
Page 113 and 114: Managing demand-side dynamics WBGU
Page 115 and 116: 6.3 Conflict constellation: ‘Clim
Page 117 and 118: ductivity is likely to decline worl
Page 119 and 120: Regional production - Local environ
Page 121 and 122: Box 6.3-1 Examples of destabilizati
Page 123 and 124: no longer adapt quickly enough to c
Page 125 and 126: World Trade Organization (WTO), the
Page 127 and 128: Although the special vulnerability
Page 129 and 130: O’Leary believes that a raised cr
Page 131 and 132: Figure 6.4-3 Conflict constellation
Page 133 and 134: A marked increase in social unrest
Page 135 and 136:
6.4.3.2 Hurricane risks in the Gulf
Page 137 and 138:
A Category Six hurricane hits Houst
Page 139 and 140:
Box 6.5-1 Migration - definitions a
Page 141 and 142:
Figure 6.5-1 Conflict constellation
Page 143 and 144:
differing challenges to the societi
Page 145 and 146:
Fictitious confrontation scenario:
Page 147 and 148:
tions, this has already given rise
Page 149 and 150:
programme that is making a signific
Page 151:
conflict (Geissler, 1999; Phuong, 2
Page 154 and 155:
132 7 Hotspots of climate change It
Page 156 and 157:
134 7 Hotspots of climate change de
Page 158 and 159:
136 7 Hotspots of climate change 7.
Page 160 and 161:
138 7 Hotspots of climate change ex
Page 162 and 163:
140 7 Hotspots of climate change re
Page 164 and 165:
142 7 Hotspots of climate change (G
Page 166 and 167:
144 7 Hotspots of climate change mo
Page 168 and 169:
146 7 Hotspots of climate change im
Page 170 and 171:
148 7 Hotspots of climate change in
Page 172 and 173:
150 7 Hotspots of climate change Hu
Page 174 and 175:
152 7 Hotspots of climate change In
Page 176 and 177:
154 7 Hotspots of climate change ra
Page 178 and 179:
156 7 Hotspots of climate change GD
Page 180 and 181:
158 8 Climate change as a driver of
Page 182 and 183:
Page 184 and 185:
Page 186 and 187:
Page 188 and 189:
Page 190 and 191:
Page 192 and 193:
Page 194 and 195:
Page 196 and 197:
Page 198 and 199:
Page 200 and 201:
178 9 Research recommendations Tipp
Page 202 and 203:
180 9 Research recommendations toge
Page 204 and 205:
182 9 Research recommendations 2020
Page 206 and 207:
184 9 Research recommendations ture
Page 208 and 209:
186 9 Research recommendations wate
Page 210 and 211:
188 9 Research recommendations tion
Page 212 and 213:
190 10 Recommendations for action t
Page 214 and 215:
192 10 Recommendations for action b
Page 216 and 217:
194 10 Recommendations for action f
Page 218 and 219:
196 10 Recommendations for action a
Page 220 and 221:
198 10 Recommendations for action d
Page 222 and 223:
200 10 Recommendations for action A
Page 224 and 225:
Page 226 and 227:
204 10 Recommendations for action s
Page 228 and 229:
206 10 Recommendations for action G
Page 230 and 231:
208 10 Recommendations for action 1
Page 232 and 233:
Page 234 and 235:
212 10 Recommendations for action n
Page 237 and 238:
Abel, W (1974) Massenarmut und Hung
Page 239 and 240:
BMU (Bundesministerium für Umwelt,
Page 241 and 242:
36. University Amsterdam, Faculteit
Page 243 and 244:
for Action. Global Commission on In
Page 245 and 246:
library.fes.de/pdf-fi les/stabsabte
Page 247 and 248:
- a review’. In Kreimer, A, Arnol
Page 249 and 250:
ics in the Southern Brazilian Amazo
Page 251 and 252:
No. 113. UNHCR Evaluation and Polic
Page 253 and 254:
Stockle, C O, Dyke, P T, Williams,
Page 255 and 256:
WBGU (German Advisory Council on Gl
Page 257 and 258:
Action Plan ‘Crisis Prevention’
Page 259 and 260:
er countries in 2001 at the 4th Min
Page 261 and 262:
focuses on the security needs of hu
Page 263 and 264:
towards the future as plausible ‘
Page 265 and 266:
Index A Aceh 107 Africa 70-71, 72,
Page 267 and 268:
Framework Convention on Climate Cha
Page 269 and 270:
208, 211 security strategies 19, 21
show all

World in Transition: Climate Change as a Security Risk - WBGU

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?