World in Transition: Climate Change as a Security Risk - WBGU

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8 Climate change as a driver of social destabilization and threat to international security
Box 8.3-1
The major newly industrializing countries’
possible future share of global greenhouse gas
emissions
In 2000, China accounted for around 12 per cent of the
world’s total greenhouse gas emissions. India’s share was
4.5 per cent, Brazil’s 5.3 per cent, and the OECD countries’
share was 37 per cent (CAIT WRI, 2007). The emissions
can be broadly categorized as CO 2 emissions from land use
changes, CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels, and emissions of
other greenhouse gases (non-CO 2 emissions, e.g. methane,
nitrous oxide).
In 2004, around 20 per cent of global greenhouse gas
emissions consisted of CO 2 resulting from land use changes
(Fig. 8.3-1). Among the countries listed, this especially
affects Brazil: Its CO 2 emissions from land use changes
(mainly from deforestation in the Amazon region) are currently
four times higher than its energy-related emissions
and account for around two-thirds of its total emissions
(CAIT WRI, 2007). In India and China, by contrast, emissions
from land use changes are negligible. Projections of
CO 2 emissions from land use changes are extremely unreliable,
but it is expected that emissions from deforestation in
the tropical regions will remain high in the medium term
(IPCC, 2007c). In view of the strong growth in total emissions,
however, the relative share of emissions from land use
changes will probably decrease.
Non-CO 2 emissions accounted for 23 per cent of global
emissions in 2004 (IPCC, 2007c). Projections from the US
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) show that global
non-CO 2 emissions will rise by around 30 per cent to
2020, but the relative shares of China, India and Brazil in
these emissions (currently 16 per cent, 6 per cent and 6.5
per cent respectively) are likely to remain fairly constant
(EPA, 2006).
The main driver behind the expected relative increase
in the significance of emissions from the newly industrial-
conflict in global politics in the 21st century would
therefore divide the main drivers of climate change
and the poor countries most affected by it, and that
this line of conflict will not only divide North and
South but will also have a South-South dimension.
Based on a detailed analysis of the various greenhouse
gas emissions, a more differentiated separation
into ‘main drivers’ and ‘affected’ countries may be
57 %
CO 2 from
fossil fuels
20 %
CO 2 from
land use changes
23 %
Non-CO 2emissions
(CH 4, N 2O, ...)
Figure 8.3-1
Rough breakdown of global greenhouse gas emissions in
2004.
Source: WBGU, based on IPCC, 2007c
izing countries is therefore fossil fuel use. CO 2 from fossil
sources not only accounted for the major share of current
emissions in 2004, i.e. 57 per cent; these emissions are also
increasing at a disproportionately high rate (IPCC, 2007c).
There are numerous scenarios for these emissions which all
show an increasing relative share for the newly industrializing
countries. For illustrative purposes, Table 8.3-1 shows
the percentage increases of selected newly industrializing
countries and the OECD countries in global energy-related
CO 2 emissions based on the IEA’s Alternative Policy Scenario
(IEA, 2006c). The absolute level and the rapid growth
of emissions from the newly industrializing countries make
it clear that climate protection policy cannot succeed in
future without the participation of the newly industrializing
countries.
Table 8.3-1
Global energy-related CO2 emissions and selected countries’/groups of countries’ shares in these emissions based on
the IEA’s Alternative Policy Scenario.
Source: IEA, 2006c
1990 2004 2015 2030
Global energy-related
CO2 emissions [Gt CO2] 20.5 26.1 31.6 34.1
China’s share [%] 11.2 18.3 23.1 25.8
India’s share [%] 2.9 4.2 4.8 5.9
Brazil’s share [%] 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.3
OECD’s share [%] 54.0 49.2 43.8 38.7
appropriate among the industrialized countries too.
However, in view of the development of North-South
relations in the past and the ongoing prosperity gap,
such considerations will be of secondary importance
for the conflicts that can be anticipated.
There are many signs that the most powerful
nations within the international system will come
under very strong pressure to justify their actions