World in Transition: Climate Change as a Security Risk - WBGU

194 10 Recommendations for action
from Asia to North America, and also takes account
of the growing significance of private actors.
Germany and the EU: Pioneers and models
of best practice
Germany can act as a pioneer here by undertaking
the necessary advocacy work and, via the EU, working
pro-actively at international level for the adoption
of confidence-building measures. One option,
for example, is to initiate and institutionalize a process
modelled on the Conference on Security and
Co-operation in Europe (CSCE) and aimed at confidence-building
worldwide. International climate policy
and development policy appear to offer ideal thematic
fields for a move in this direction. This requires
at least the following three preconditions to be fulfilled:
1. The formulation of comprehensive policy objectives
which must be ambitious in the sense that
they can make an adequate contribution to problem-solving.
2. The adoption and implementation of concrete and
sometimes painful measures that make a credible
contribution to achieving the policy objectives and
are internationally verifiable.
3. Negotiation between international partners on an
equal footing, even if some partners are still less
powerful than others at present. This applies as a
general principle to relations with all the developing
countries but especially to the ‘anchor’ countries
which in many cases have already established
regional predominance and are increasingly
emerging as world powers. Major anchor countries
such as China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan,
Nigeria, South Africa, Brazil and Mexico are playing
an increasingly important role in international
politics, due to their economic weight and political
influence in their own regions and increasingly at
global level as well.
There is much to suggest that the EU will only be
successful in persuading China and India to move
towards an effective climate policy, and in developing
strategic technology partnerships with these countries
in the transition to a low-carbon economy if
Europe itself pursues consistent and credible policies
to solve global problems. The hectoring tone often
adopted by the West towards the rapidly expanding
newly industrializing countries diverts attention
from the industrialized countries’ own climate policy
responsibility and must give way to a culture of common
responsibility and cooperation.
If cooperative multilateralism is to prevail in
tomorrow’s world, a pioneering role for Germany
and the EU is essential, too, because the USA, on
the one hand, currently shows no sign of any political
will to accept the relative ascendancy of rival pow-
ers, and on the other, the rising Asian powers China
and India are likely to be preoccupied with their own
affairs for some time to come. In particular, it is still
unclear whether, and how, these two countries will
handle their growing global responsibility.
Furthermore, the EU is at risk of being marginalized
from global politics unless it makes substantial
efforts to establish itself as a partner for China and
India – a partner which is not only economically relevant
but which is also still a significant global actor.
This role is by no means guaranteed by ‘history’,
despite European governments’ periodic assumptions
to that effect. Chinese foreign policy already
regards Europe as a peripheral issue; its main frame
of reference is the USA, followed by Japan and the
South/South-East Asian countries that are relevant
in an economic and regional policy context.
In order to avoid any further loss of significance
vis-à-vis the Asian powers, Germany and the EU
should invest to a far greater extent than before in
a coherent, future-oriented Common Foreign and
Security Policy (CFSP), which inevitably means setting
aside national egoisms. The EU can no longer
afford to present a divided image to the world as it
has done in the past, notably in advance of the Iraq
war in 2003. Instead, within the framework of the
CFSP, it should openly address the issue of the anticipated
shifts in the political world order and accept
the challenge of presenting itself as a constructive
partner for the Asian region, on the one hand, without
permanently damaging its transatlantic relations,
on the other, which are based on historical ties and
remain on a sound footing (Biermann, 2005).
Against this background, one issue to be explored
is whether convening a world conference, akin to the
CSCE process, to consider, at the highest level, the
possible implications of the anticipated power shifts
could help foster a positive climate of cooperation.
The title for the conference could be broadly as follows:
‘A New World Order for the 21st Century –
Power Shifts for Global Governance’ (for a discussion
of the real opportunities afforded by the world
conferences, which are often regarded as ineffective,
see Fues and Hamm, 2001; Haas, 2002). The concerns
and diffuse uncertainty experienced by many states
and societies in the face of geopolitical change could
perhaps then be channelled constructively. The aim
would be to generate a positive mood that is conducive
to a fresh start, emphasizing and building on the
opportunities afforded by the anticipated changes.
Recognising climate change as a common
threat to humankind
Climate policy and energy policy offer ideal fields
of action for Europe to play a pioneering role. Here,
Germany and the EU could bring influence to bear