World in Transition: Climate Change as a Security Risk - WBGU

Not all countries or regions of the world are
exposed equally to the risks of destabilization and
violent conflict arising from climate change. The thin
line between stability and instability, and between
security and insecurity, will be determined by the
extent of global climate change, its impacts upon
societies and regions, and their specific capacities to
adapt to and tackle the problems. Agriculture-based
economies are more susceptible to climate change
impacts than service-based economies; rich societies
are better able to handle the costs of climate change
than developing countries; highly capable governments
can manage the consequences of environmental
degradation and climate change better than
weak states; well-organized civil societies are better
able to take precautionary action than fragmented
societies which may already be characterized by violence.
Climate change thus widens social, political and
economic disparities in the world society. Yet even
countries with high problem-solving capacity are not
entirely secure, for massive immigration from regions
experiencing severe problems related to environmental
upheaval and conflict would present considerable
additional security challenges.
International action in a world in
transition
It is characteristic of the challenges presented by
climate change that a delicate equation links the
present need to act and the future occurrence of
harmful impacts that are anticipated and need to
be prevented. Only if action is taken today will it be
possible to contain violent conflicts and social crises
induced by climate change. Prevention is necessary
and possible: climate-induced security risks can
still be avoided if resolute action is taken in the coming
two decades, keeping global warming within the
2 °C guard rail. The challenge is to muster the political
will to make far-sighted strategic decisions. Political
systems are better able to find answers to shortterm
problems than to act prospectively. Moreover,
climate change will play out against the backdrop of
a fundamental shift in the centres of power of the
political world order. The dominant position of the
USA will most likely give way in the coming decades
to a system that is more multipolar in nature. China
and India currently constitute the newly emerging
centres of the global economy and of global politics
alongside the USA, Europe and Russia. The question
thus arises whether the new and old powers in international
politics, who are at the same time those principally
responsible for climate change, will be preoccupied
in future with power disputes and struggles
to assert dominance in world politics, or whether
they will succeed in conceiving of climate change as
Introduction 1
a common global challenge and hence work together
to craft an effective global climate policy.
In this report, WBGU develops a package of recommendations
for action and research to mitigate
the risks of conflict set out above. The core message
is that it is essential to make strategic decisions in
the next two decades in order to change course away
from trajectories that are highly risky and would
entail scarcely controllable destabilization and crisis
in societies, world regions and the international system.
WBGU warns anew that this change of course
must be made as a matter of urgency, even if, from
the present perspective, the costs appear more prominent
than the benefits – future benefits will outweigh
present costs many times over. Europe now has a
great opportunity. It can cast itself as a pioneer of sustainable
climate policy and can thus gain leverage in
one of the key arenas of global policy. A global transformation
of energy systems is the lynchpin of efforts
to mitigate climate change successfully. Tapping efficiency
potential and boosting renewable energies are
key elements of this transformation. If Europe were
to succeed in integrating its policies on climate, technology
and innovation in a way that could provide
a beacon for the future, this would in the long term
enhance its position in the global economy.
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