World in Transition: Climate Change as a Security Risk - WBGU

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6 Conflict constellations
The scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment assume a global rise in demand for food
of 60–85 per cent by 2050, based on predicted population
growth and assumptions about trends in consumption
patterns (MA, 2005a). At the same time,
the MA scenarios assume that global food production
and per-capita food yield will rise until the year
2050. This is subject to regional variation, per-capita
food yields (staple foods) are likely to stagnate
or decline in North Africa, the Middle East and in
sub-Saharan Africa. It is expected that these regional
shortfalls in food production can be offset by means
of imports (MA, 2005a).
The FAO arrived at a similar assessment: it forecasts
that the annual growth rate for world cereal
production will rise from 1 per cent today to 1.4
per cent by 2015, thereafter falling to 1.2 per cent
(1970s: 2.5 per cent per annum; 1980s: 1.9 per cent
per annum; 1990s: 1 per cent per annum). In the estimation
of the FAO, many developing countries will
become increasingly dependent on imports. Whereas
between 1997–1999 developing countries imported
around 9 per cent of their cereal requirements, this is
expected to reach a figure of 14 per cent in the year
2030 (FAO, 2002; OECD-FAO, 2005, 2006). According
to the FAO, some 80 per cent of the expected
future production increases in developing countries
will be achieved by means of intensification, i.e.
higher yields per hectare, more mixed cropping, and
shorter fallow periods (FAO, 2002).
At the same time, the area of agricultural land –
according to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
assumptions – will continue to expand in developing
countries but is more likely to contract in industrialized
countries (MA, 2005a). Viewed on a global
scale, in principle there is sufficient agricultural land
– about twice as much as is currently being farmed, in
fact (MA, 2005a). For forest and ecosystem conservation
reasons, however, only part of the total amount
could or should be used. The FAO study World Agriculture
– towards 2015/2030 sees vast areas of potential
land in Africa and South America, whereas in
South Asia the supply of agricultural land has largely
been exhausted. However, these assessments do
not take account of the effects of land degradation
through soil erosion and deforestation or through
climate change (FAO, 2002, 2003; OECD-FAO, 2005,
2006).
The FAO also assumes that irrigated farming will
take on greater importance in future. In the period
1997–99, 20 per cent of agricultural land in developing
countries was already being irrigated. This land
produced some 60 per cent of total yields. The irrigated
area in developing countries is expected to
rise from 202 million hectares (1997/99) to 242 million
hectares by the year 2030. The land suitable for
irrigation in developing countries covers 402 million
hectares, according to FAO data. In Latin America
and Africa, in particular, only half of the potential
area is being used (FAO, 2002). It remains unclear
whether this assessment took account of the risk of
salinization and whether it refers only to land that
can be used sustainably rather than, say, primary forests.
Viewed on a global scale, according to the FAO
– and without taking the effects of climate change
into account – overall food security will continue to
improve in future. Globally, food supply and demand
will rise until 2015. Growth in both consumption
and production of most food and feedstuffs will outstrip
the average, global and annual rates of population
growth (OECD-FAO, 2005, 2006). According to
the forecast, the proportion of undernourished people
will fall from 17 per cent today to 11 per cent in
the year 2015, and to six per cent in 2030. As a result
of population growth, however, the numbers of people
affected will decline only slowly in absolute terms
(FAO, 2002).
6.3.1.2
Changing framework conditions for global food
production
Global warming and agricultural
production
The repercussions of climate change on food production
will vary enormously from region to region.
According to the SRES scenarios (IPCC, 2000),
warming of around 1.5–2.5 °C compared with preindustrial
levels can be expected by the middle of
the century in the event that climate policy measures
do not work. By the end of the century – depending
on human actions – warming of over 6 °C (compared
with 1990) is possible (IPCC, 2007a), adding another
0.5 °C to express the figure in comparison with preindustrial
temperatures. Generally it is in lower latitudes
that food production is most severely threatened
by global warming, particularly through loss
of cereal harvests and insufficient adaptive capacities
(IPCC, 2007b). In lower latitudes, even warming
of 2 °C (compared with the pre-industrial level)
can be expected to increase food insecurity (Hare,
2006). Under these conditions, there is likely to be a
significant increase in the numbers of people threatened
by famines in some developing regions of the
world (Pilardeaux, 2004). In contrast, many but not
all regions in middle and higher latitudes can initially
expect an increase in agricultural production to
result from warming of between 1 and 3 °C (henceforth
always in relation to 1990). Once the mean global
temperature warms by 2–4 °C, agricultural pro-