World in Transition: Climate Change as a Security Risk - WBGU

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9 Research recommendations
together different strands of theory that have hitherto
coexisted largely in separation from each other.
Findings from research into the underlying causes
of conflict, violence and war, from research
into environmental conflicts, from vulnerability
research, from research on disaster management
and on the reasons why governments and institutions
fail (governance research) should be systematically
interlinked, with a view to developing
concepts and theoretical frameworks of reference
that could provide a basis for adequately reconstructing
the impacts of climate change on the stability
of societies. There is great potential for synergies
in the process of bringing together these different
approaches, all of which address a similar
set of questions from a variety of perspectives.
The impacts of climate change on different types
of society (such as democracies or autocracies)
and different types of country (e.g. weak and fragile
states) with differing levels of socio-economic
development will vary enormously. Hence, alongside
efforts to bring together the different strands
of theory mentioned above, empirical studies that
differentiate between types of society and levels
of development are also important. Development
research can make an important contribution in
this regard.
The social sciences and natural sciences need to
cooperate more closely for the purpose of investigating
the societal implications of climate change.
Over the last few decades, the debate on environmental
conflict has been conducted almost exclusively
among social scientists. The elaboration of
‘conflict constellations’ in this report shows, however,
that the mechanisms arising as a result of
direct interaction between environmental change
and social change can be understood only if there
is cooperation between the social sciences and
the natural sciences. It is exceedingly difficult, for
example, for the social sciences to interpret the
information that a global or regional temperature
rise of X degrees is anticipated. The impacts of this
temperature rise on land-use systems, water balance
and other natural resources must first be captured
and assessed by environmental and agricultural
scientists. Declining agricultural potential,
scarcity of water and resources, and environmental
stress may lead to social instability and conflict,
but they may also be attenuated by cooperation.
The social sciences can examine the way in which
climate change and resulting changes to biogeophysical
conditions affect the relevant social, political
and economic institutions and processes,
and investigate the dynamics that favour cooperation
or conflict, social stability or instability in this
context. Close communication between the natu-
ral sciences and the social sciences is absolutely
essential to enable robust research to be carried
out into ‘climate change – changes to biogeophysical
conditions – relevance of the changes in biogeophysical
conditions for societies and their stability’
as a sequence, into the interdependencies
between ‘climate change’, ‘changes to biogeophysical
conditions’ and ‘social stability/instability’,
and into the direct interactions between biogeophysical
and social processes. Great efforts should
be made by universities, non-university research
establishments, research funding organizations
and the various scientific disciplines to strengthen
interdisciplinary cooperation across the high barriers
that continue to divide the social sciences and
the natural sciences. Research approaches such as
those conceived by the German Research Ministry
BMBF in its programme of socio-ecological
research need to be pursued and developed further.
9.2
Policies to prevent and contain conflict
9.2.1
Research and policy focused on the long term
Conflicting objectives of environmental
science and policy formulation
One fundamental problem in environmental science
is how to translate scientific knowledge into practical
policy. Over the last two decades a sophisticated field
of research has developed in this area, its aim being
to examine critically the circumstances in which scientific
policy advice is given, the potential it has to
influence change, as well as questions concerning
legitimacy and responsibility (Jasanoff, 1990, 2004;
Haas, 2004; Farrell and Jäger, 2005). This is especially
relevant both to the problem of assessing the consequences
of technology and to the scientific underpinnings
of global environmental policy (WBGU,
2000). The publication of international assessment
reports, such as those from IPCC, and the Millennium
Ecosystem Assessment has generated a great
deal of public interest and exerted considerable political
influence. Such reports serve to gather together
existing knowledge and to make it publicly available
in a form helpful for decision-making.
Nonetheless, it remains difficult to develop concrete
policies based on research findings with a longterm
focus that are inherently uncertain (Sprinz,
forthcoming). There is a continuing need for clarity
here with regard to what scientific policy advice
based on solutions-focused research with a long-term