World in Transition: Climate Change as a Security Risk - WBGU

groups, the central government and right-wing paramilitaries.
Intense armed conflict has been taking
place in Haiti for more than 20 years; the central government
has permanently lost control of large parts
of the country and since 2004 a UN peace mission
has been attempting to stabilize the situation there.
In Belize there were violent clashes between police
and demonstrators at the beginning of 2005. In 2006,
internal political tensions in the Mexican state of
Oaxaca erupted violently, resulting in many deaths.
Since 2000, Venezuela has been locked in an internal
ideological conflict in which the populist leftwing
government of President Hugo Chávez and the
established middle class confront the large landowners.
As one of the last remaining Cold War-era system
conflicts, the relationship between Cuba and
the USA is also important for security in the region.
However, violent escalation of this situation appears
very unlikely.
In addition, there are a number of other conflicts
that, on the whole, are taking place non-violently.
These include disputes between Costa Rica and
Nicaragua and between Colombia and Venezuela. In
Guatemala and Mexico there are also considerable
internal political tensions (HIIK, 2005).
7.8.3
Conclusions
The analysis shows that the region will be exposed
to considerable social and political risks. The anticipated
increase in severe tropical cyclones is likely
to have a negative impact on all the countries in the
region, particularly those of Central America. After
Hurricane Mitch in 1998, it was estimated that the
event had set back economic development in the
most severely affected developing countries by several
decades (IDA, 2006). More frequent incidence
of such extreme events is therefore likely to lead to
permanent economic destabilization in many parts of
the region. This is all the more probable because, with
few exceptions (Cuba, USA), the countries of the
region have few effective disaster prevention measures
in place.
Moreover, in many parts of the region there is
a latent risk of conflict that erupts repeatedly in
armed disputes. Since weak governance structures
are a feature of most of the countries of Central
America and the Caribbean, it can be assumed that
climate-induced environmental changes will markedly
increase the existing risk of conflict. The vulnerability
of the oil and gas infrastructure in the Gulf
of Mexico represents a further important factor in
regional and global crisis susceptibility. Short-term
disruptions of oil and gas production already have
significant economic and sometimes political consequences.
Increased frequency of severe hurricanes in
the Gulf of Mexico could therefore have global economic
and political consequences.
The economies of many countries in Central and
South America are stabilized by migration to the
USA and the remittances sent back to families in the
migrants’ countries of origin. Therefore the USA’s
attempts to limit migration already entail a risk of
social upheaval. In the wake of climate change and
its anticipated effects on the Caribbean and Central
America it can be assumed that migration flows
towards the USA will increase, and that within Central
America they will also intensify. In particular,
people will leave those regions that are especially
severely affected by extreme events and ecosystem
degradation. Urban centres will be the primary destinations
for migration. In view of the weak governance
capacities in the region and the limited employment
opportunities in the cities, it can be assumed
that here, too, latent conflicts are likely to be exacerbated.
7.9
Andes region
Andes region 7.9
7.9.1
Impacts of climate change on the biosphere and
human society
The most important climate impacts for the countries
of the Andes include major warming and the
resulting rapid glacier melt. These factors, combined
with increasing precipitation variability, have serious
impacts on the water supply and on agriculture,
which is also affected by increased soil degradation
(IPCC, 2007b).
The Andes extend along the west coast of the
South American subcontinent; they pass primarily
through Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia and Chile,
but also parts of Venezuela and Argentina. Climate
models project warming in excess of the global mean
by the end of this century; temperatures are projected
to rise by 1.8–5 °C (mean 3.2 °C) in the northern
Andes and by 1.7–3.5 °C (mean 2.5 °C) in the
southern Andes, with the increase being distributed
relatively equally across the seasons (A1B scenario,
IPCC, 2007a). In recent decades a rise in temperature
has already become apparent in the region; this is
responsible for progressive melting of the Andes glaciers.
For example, the glaciers in the Peruvian Andes
have lost 25 per cent of their area in the last 30 years
alone (Barnett et al., 2005; IPCC, 2007b).
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