World in Transition: Climate Change as a Security Risk - WBGU

differing challenges to the societies that are affected
(Phase 2 of Fig. 6.5-1).
Influence dimension [5] Competition for resources
/ demographics: The likelihood of migration-induced
conflict increases if environmental migrants have
to compete with the resident population for scarce
resources such as land, accommodation, water,
employment and basic social services, or if the immigrants
are perceived as competitors. A competitive
situation of this sort is particularly likely to arise in
regions in which population growth is strong (Hugo,
1996; ODI, 2005; Urdal, 2005; Clark, 2006; Sections
3.3.2.2 and 3.3.3.1). Competition for resources can
also trigger conflict when migrants return to their
regions of origin. It is possible, for example, that
returnees may lay claim to their land or property,
only to find that ownership or rights of use have in
the mean time been granted to others (Hensell, 2002;
Black and Gent, 2006; Hansen, 2006).
Influence dimension [6] Ethnicity: The likelihood
of ethnic conflict may increase if the arrival of environmental
migrants upsets the ‘ethnic balance’ in
the region. This change of ethnic balance may lead
to xenophobia and violent confrontation, or further
destabilize an already labile ethnic situation (Homer-
Dixon, 1999). Goldstone (2002) also refers to ‘clashes
of national identity’ that may be caused by immigration
if the dominance of one resident ethnic group
is threatened. Ethnicity may in addition exacerbate
conflict if ethnic differences are exploited for political
purposes within the context of migration (Lohrmann,
2000) or if membership of an ethnic group leads to
social exclusion of the migrants in their country of
arrival (Bade, 1996; Rydgren, 2004; Section 3.3.3.2).
Influence dimension [7] Diaspora / migration networks:
In recent years scientists and politicians have
highlighted the presence of a diaspora as a possible
cause of conflict (Lohrmann, 2000). A diaspora
describes a religious or ethnic group that has left its
traditional homeland and is dispersed over large areas
of the globe. Collier and Hoeffler (2004) find there to
be a strong positive correlation between both susceptibility
to repeated conflict and conflict intensity and
the size of the diaspora abroad. Diaspora migrants
can play a significant part in the financing of conflict
and hence contribute directly to the initiation, escalation
or prolongation of conflict within a country.
If they are members of rebel groups, they can also
introduce weapons or violent ideologies in their transit
or arrival countries. There is a risk that refugee
camps or emergency settlements will serve as logistic
platforms for rebel groups and be misused for strategic
purposes (Lohrmann, 2000; UNHCR, 2006b).
Existing conflicts are exported in this way to other
regions.
Conflict constellation: ‘Environmentally induced migration’ 6.5
Influence dimension [8] Reaction of the government
of the arrival country / arrival region: The impact of
the conflict factors described above depends to a significant
extent on the response of the government in
the arrival country. Even now governments are often
unable to cope with the task of man a ging migration.
In particular, affected governments face enormous
challenges if their institutions are to be able to handle
sudden and unexpected migration. This has been
demonstrated by Spain’s periodic problems in dealing
with West African boat people and by the difficulties
encountered by the US government in catering
for 1.3 million internal refugees after Hurricane
Katrina in August 2005. The risk of (ethnic) conflict
may be reduced by non-discriminatory regulations,
wide-ranging rights for minorities and opportunities
for including minorities in political decisionmaking
processes (Cramer, 2003; Addison and Murshed,
2003; Korf, 2005; Reynal-Querol, 2005; Nordås
and Gleditsch, 2005; Regan and Norton, 2005).
There is inherent potential for conflict if environmental
migrants are treated as ‘temporary guests’
and in consequence experience restriction of their
rights with regard to freedom of movement, freedom
of residence, acquisition of property and access
to the labour market (Jacobsen, 2002; Crips, 2003).
On the other hand, the granting of widespread rights
of access and use may, as has already been mentioned,
itself provoke conflict – for example, if environmental
migrants compete with locals in a difficult
labour market (Martin, 2005). Where environmentally
induced migration takes place suddenly
after extreme weather events, disaster management
plays an important part in determining the further
unfolding of the crisis and eventual conflict (Jacobsen,
2002).
Influence dimension [9] Governance cap acity:
Governance capacity is particularly relevant in
the context of environmentally induced migration
because it is likely that the majority of environmental
migrants will seek refuge in developing countries
with weak governmental structures. The receiving
countries usually have little hope of adapting to
the changing situation without outside help, since
their institutions are poorly developed and there is
a general lack of resources and know-how. Situations
in which migrants overstretch the capacity of
the authority in the reception region are therefore a
potential cause of conflict. In countries that are also
prone to economic crises, the influx of environmental
migrants further increases the likelihood of conflict
(Reuveny, 2005).
Influence dimension [10] Political stability: Conflict
research has also established that the likelihood
of conflict within a country depends on the degree
of political stability there (Section 3.3.6). Conflict
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