APPENDICES. A systematic review and economic model of the ...

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188 Appendix 8 Probability cost-effective 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 TABLE 106 Cost per QALY gained with single-drug strategies compared with no treatment Cost per QALY gained compared with no treatment (£) Scenario IR-MPH ER-MPH8 ER-MPH12 ATX DEX Base case D 4,183 4,917 8,004 D Alternative utility estimates D 5,294 6,612 6,660 D Long-term extrapolation 11,462 19,020 16,590 20,534 8,416 All response, CGI-I baseline D 4,211 4,963 8,341 D All response, ADHD-RS baseline D 4,022 4,881 8,049 D D, dominates 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Willingness to pay per QALY (£) FIGURE 28 CEACs for all possible treatment strategies (excluding combination therapy) Table 106 reports the cost per QALY gained for each individual treatment compared with no treatment under various scenarios explored in the main analysis. Provided that the societal willingness to pay per QALY exceeds £20,534, a treatment strategy with Strategy 13 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Strategy 15 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 three active drugs would be recommended. If the societal willingness to pay per QALY were below £20,534, then ATX does not look favourable in comparison with no treatment in the long-term extrapolation model, so a three-drug strategy may not be recommended.
Appendix 9 WinBUGS code © Queen’s Printer and Controller of HMSO 2006. All rights reserved. Health Technology Assessment 2006; Vol. 10: No. 23 #Baseline shift random effects model for response model {for (i in 1:18) { r(i) ~ dbin(p(study(i),trt(i)),n(i)) #Binomial distribution using observed data, r and n logit(p(study(i),trt(i)))
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366 Appendix 13 Study characteristi
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