New trends in physics teaching, v.4; The ... - unesdoc - Unesco

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New Trends in Physics Teaching IV
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Synthetics and VHO
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1960 1970 1980 IS90 2000
Figure 4. A projection showing how the energy demands may be met up to the year 2000.
The graph (figure 4) includes a typical projection up to the year 2000 showing how the major
.oil corporations tend to expect the demand to be supplied by various sources.
Coal production is expected to increase, partly to replace oil and gas in the production of
electricity and partly to satisfy new demands for space and process heating. If it is also used to
produce synthetic oil and gas it could well return to its former dominance over oil. Even so the
ratio of world proven reserves of coal to the estimated production rate wil still be significantly
greater than that for oil. (On present production rates, the ratio for coal is about 200 years
whereas that for oil is 30 to 40 years.)
Nuclear energy is expected to grow also. However, the increase in the use of both coal and
nuclear energy wil be affected by concern for the protection of the environment, safety and
cost relative to oil. At the present time these factors have caused long delays in nuclear power
developments. Furthermore, incidents such as that at Three Mile Island in the United States
have heightened public sensitivity to safety hazards. Coal, too, is costly to transport and not as
convenient as oil or gas to handle.
The growth in hydro-power is expected to occur mainly in South America but also in Canada
and the USSR. Geothermal and solar energy are the principal components of the ‘other’ sources.
Ocean thermal electricity, wind, wave and tidal power are also included but their contribution
is expected to be very small.
Synthetic fuels and heavy oils are expected to become a major source of supply growth. This
wil occur mainly in the United States but also in Canada, Brazil, Venezuela and Australia.
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