assessment of the socio-economic and environmental impact

Hurricane Dean was upgraded to a major hurricane (Category 3) with sustained wind speeds near
205 km/h (125 mph) on the 17 th . The Hurricane Watch was continued for the island overnight
while Hurricane Dean strengthened to become a dangerous category 4 hurricane at 1200 UTC.
MET upgraded the Hurricane Watch to
a Hurricane Warning on Saturday August
18. The forecast was for Hurricane Dean to
move south of Hispaniola overnight and
then to make landfall over eastern Jamaica
during the afternoon on Sunday, August 19
before tracking across the island Sunday
evening/night. (See Figure 1.2).
The outer bands of the hurricane were forecast to start affecting the island by late Saturday night
with increasing cloudiness, showers and gusty winds. On August 19 (10 p.m. local time Saturday
night) the forecast track was adjusted to indicate that the eye of Hurricane Dean could now move
very close along the south coast of
Jamaica on Sunday afternoon and through
the evening (see Figure 1.3). The forecast
was for the outer bands of the hurricane to
start affecting the island by early Sunday
morning with periods of showers and
gusty winds reaching near gale force. With
Dean’s approach, heavy rainfall was
expected to spread across the island with
the potential for severe flash flooding and
landslides. Storm surge flooding of 1.5-3
Figure 1.2: Hurricane Dean at 1500 UTC,
August 18, 2007.
Figure 1.3: Hurricane Dean at 03500 UTC,
August 19, 2007.
metres (7-9 feet) above normal tide levels along with large and dangerous battering waves were
also forecast near the centre of Dean, especially over southern coastal areas.
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