The Quick Count and Election Observation

CHAPTER SIX: THE QUALITATIVE COMPONENT OF THE QUICK COUNT
94 to missed media opportunities. Advanced preparation avoids such problems.
More importantly, they save time on election day and eliminate possibilities
of making mistakes that can damage the credibility of the election observers.
Analysts should establish
a working protocol
for the management
of results produced by
the analysis team.
Establishing an Election Day Protocol
Analysts should also prepare for election day by establishing a working protocol
for the management of results produced by the analysis team. This
protocol can significantly reduce the potential for election day friction with
quick count leadership and mistakes like forcing premature release of data.
The protocol should clearly address the following questions: How, when, and
to whom will the analysts report the results of the analysis on election day? These
issues need to be discussed and agreed upon prior to election day. 4
The political leadership of civic organizations does not always understand precisely
what is entailed in the analysis of election day observation data, and
they have expectations that are sometimes unfounded. Furthermore, there are
extraordinary pressures surrounding election day. Quick count organizers are
under external pressure to release results as quickly as possible. The pressures
can come from multiple sources, including: the media, international observer
groups, representatives of donor countries, political parties, and even the
election commission. The constraint facing the analyst is that it takes time for
data to arrive and be entered before they can be analyzed. Moreover, analysts
need to have enough data to undertake a reliable analysis. If leadership bows
to pressures and makes premature pronouncements, they may be inaccurate
and produce extraordinarily negative consequences.
Steps in the Analysis of the Qualitative Data
On election day, the analysis of the qualitative data usually proceeds through
three discrete steps:
1. Scanning the data—Identifying “outliers,” signs that something has gone
wrong.
2. Searching for systematic patterns—Determining whether problems are randomly
distributed or clustered.
3. Ascertaining the impact of the problems—Determining whether problems
have a material impact on the outcome and favor any particular party or
candidate.
Scanning the Data
The analysis of the qualitative data usually begins with a scan of the data and
an analysis of the distribution of the responses to each and every question in the
qualitative dataset. The task here is to identify “outliers,” those responses that
signify that something might have gone wrong. Recall that all the questions
were drafted, and informed in large part by, the election law and administrative
4
See Chapter 8: The “End Game” for a discussion of developing and following a protocol for sharing
internally and releasing quick count results.