The Quick Count and Election Observation

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THE QUICK COUNT AND ELECTION OBSERVATION attributable to the role of the sample size in constructing the margin of error. Recall that the formula for margin of error is: 77 (Assumed heterogeneity) * (z value at chosen confidence level) √n The fact is that variations in the size of polling station will also affect the ‘n.’ VOTERS POLLING STATIONS If station size is 160 If station size is 200 If station size is 500 Sample 163,185 1,020 816 324 FIGURE 5-5: SAMPLE SIZE AND MARGINS OF ERROR Margin of error (95% confidence level) Margin of error (99% confidence level) ±0.24 ±3.01 ±3.43 ±5.4 ±0.32 ±4.03 ±4.5 ±7.1 Notice that the margin of error depends on the number of polling stations in the sample. If the polling stations are large, fewer of them are needed to generate the desired sample of 163,185 voters. The margin of error calculated for the polling stations is larger than the margin of error calculated for the sample of voters. The resulting margin of error for quick counts falls somewhere in between the lower and higher margin of error. Tracking the changes to the margin of error for a range of polling station sizes shows that, as the number of stations needed to form a sample of voters decreases, the margin of error increases. Figure 5-6 illustrates the relationship between the size of the polling station and the margin of error. As the number of stations need to form a sample of voters decreases, the margin of error increases. VOTERS/ STATION # STATIONS TO GET SAMPLE MARGIN OF ERROR (confidence levels) FIGURE 5-6: POLLING STATION SIZE AND MARGIN OF ERROR 95% 99% 150 1,088 ±2.97 ±3.91 200 816 ±3.43 ±4.52 250 653 ±3.84 ±5.05 300 544 ±4.20 ±5.53 350 466 ±4.54 ±5.97 400 408 ±4.85 ±6.39 450 363 ±5.14 ±6.77 500 327 ±5.42 ±7.13
CHAPTER FIVE: STATISTICAL PRINCIPLES AND QUICK COUNTS 78 The margin of error increases as polling station size increases. The overall effect of polling station size on margin of error, however, decreases as both rise. Figure 5-7 illustrates this point. FIGURE 5-7: POLLING STATION SIZE AND MARGIN OF ERROR 12 7 99% confidence level Margin of Error 6 5 4 3 2 95% confidence level 1 0 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Size of Polling Station (Voters/Station) When elections are very close, quick count analysts must also be concerned with the level of voter turnout. Correcting for Turnout When elections are very close, quick count analysts must also be concerned with the level of voter turnout. Even if observers have been successful at retrieving data from each of the 1,020 polling stations in the theoretical sample, low voter turnout will mean that there will be fewer votes included in the sample than if turnout had been high. The original calculation was based on the expectation of some 160 votes per polling station. If turnout has been at 70 percent, however, there would only be 112 votes at each polling station. If that pattern is repeated across the 1,020 polling stations, then the count would include only 114,240 votes, some 50,000 shy of the desired 163,185 needed to achieve a margin of error of 0.3 percent and a confidence level of 99 percent. FIGURE 5-8: TURNOUT AND MARGIN OF ERROR TURNOUT # VOTERS, VOTES MARGIN OF ERROR (confidence levels) 95% 99% Desired sample (turnout = 100%) 163,185 ±0.24 ±0.31 90% 146,867 ±0.25 ±0.33 80% 130,548 ±0.27 ±0.36 70% 114,230 ±0.29 ±0.38 60% 97,911 ±0.31 ±0.41 50% 81,593 ±0.38 ±0.49
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A P P E N D I C E S 134 ORGANIZATIO
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A P P E N D I C E S 136 Ghana • N
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A P P E N D I C E S 138 ment in Afr
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A P P E N D I C E S 140 Montenegro
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A P P E N D I C E S 142 NDI is part
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A P P E N D I C E S 144 WORK PLAN F
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A P P E N D I C E S 146 APPENDIX 3A
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A P P E N D I C E S 148 EXAMPLE OF
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A P P E N D I C E S 150 APPENDIX 3C
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A P P E N D I C E S 152 APPENDIX 3D
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A P P E N D I C E S 154 APPENDIX 4
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A P P E N D I C E S 162 DIAGRAM OF
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A P P E N D I C E S 164 SAMPLE OBSE
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A P P E N D I C E S 166 EXAMPLE OF
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A P P E N D I C E S 168 the polling
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A P P E N D I C E S 170 How to Cond
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A P P E N D I C E S 172 SAMPLE OBSE
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A P P E N D I C E S 174 APPENDIX 9B
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A P P E N D I C E S 176 MALAWI DATA
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A P P E N D I C E S 178 PROMOTIONAL
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