The Quick Count and Election Observation

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THE QUICK COUNT AND ELECTION OBSERVATION i-18 how to collect and analyze quick count data, and Chapter Eight offers advice on how to most effectively use the data on election day. Quick counts are politically neutral—but those conducting quick counts must take careful account of the political environment. Throughout the handbook, the authors discuss how the local political context either facilitates, or impedes, quick count preparations and how political considerations must come into play so that the impartiality and accuracy of the quick count remain beyond question. The authors do not presume to provide the definitive approach to quick counts in this handbook. Each country’s history, culture and geography provide opportunities and constraints that influence a quick count’s final organization. Resource and time constraints may force compromises. Some groups may utilize statistical sampling and analysis techniques described here but de-emphasize speed during data collection. Others may follow the advice on how to build a volunteer network and collect and use data, but they may not have the capability to organize around a random sample of polling stations. Nonetheless, the techniques discussed in this handbook should help any election monitoring group improve its capacity to speak to what happened on election day on a national basis and in a timely manner. This handbook provides the basis for organizing and conducting quick counts, but these techniques will almost certainly continue to evolve. New methods may be discovered for managing data; observer forms may be refined to address emerging issues. Cooperation among observer organizations, both domestic and international, will likely improve. NDI looks forward to supporting organizations that use their skill, talent and creativity to add to the rich legacy of those that pioneered and developed this innovative and powerful tool.
THE QUICK COUNT AND ELECTION OBSERVATION CHAPTER ONE 1 Background on Quick Counts “Democracy is based on the conviction that there are extraordinary possibilities in ordinary people.” Harry Emerson Fosdick (1878-1969) Independent quick counts conducted by civil society organizations are remarkable and complex projects. They are often conceived by extraordinary leaders and conducted by courageous, ordinary citizens. Quick counts require expertise in political dynamics and grassroots organizing, a grasp of random sampling theory and some capacity with information technology. Hundreds or thousands of volunteers participate in a quick count and, in doing so, safeguard one of democracy’s foundations—the vote. Quick counts can project or verify official results, detect and report irregularities or expose fraud. In the majority of cases, quick counts build confidence in the work of election officials and the legitimacy of the electoral process. QUICK COUNT DEFINED A quick count is the process of collecting information gathered by hundreds, or thousands, of volunteers. All information, or data, comes from the direct observation of the election process. Observers watch the electoral authorities as they administer the voting process and count the ballots. They record information, including the actual vote count, on standardized forms and communicate their findings to a central collection point. Quick counts require expertise in political dynamics and grassroots organizing, a grasp of random sampling theory and some capacity with information technology. A quick count IS NOT the same as political opinion research, or exit polling. Quick counts do not rely on asking voters, or anyone else, how they might vote or require that voters divulge how they did vote. No opinions are expressed and none are requested from anyone. Groups that try to collect data from every polling station attempt a comprehensive quick count. Comprehensive counts are designed to mirror the official vote count. Alternatively, and more commonly, groups collect information from a scientific random selection of polling stations to derive a reliable projection of results. 1 Such quick counts require fewer volunteers, although even 1 See Chapter Five, Statistical Principles and Quick Counts, for a more detailed explanation of random sampling theory.
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FIGURE 6-1: SAMPLE OBSERVER FORMS 8
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CHAPTER SEVEN: COLLECTING AND ANALY
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A P P E N D I C E S 134 ORGANIZATIO
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A P P E N D I C E S 136 Ghana • N
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A P P E N D I C E S 138 ment in Afr
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A P P E N D I C E S 140 Montenegro
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A P P E N D I C E S 142 NDI is part
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A P P E N D I C E S 144 WORK PLAN F
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A P P E N D I C E S 146 APPENDIX 3A
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A P P E N D I C E S 148 EXAMPLE OF
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A P P E N D I C E S 150 APPENDIX 3C
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A P P E N D I C E S 152 APPENDIX 3D
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A P P E N D I C E S 154 APPENDIX 4
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A P P E N D I C E S 162 DIAGRAM OF
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A P P E N D I C E S 164 SAMPLE OBSE
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A P P E N D I C E S 168 the polling
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A P P E N D I C E S 170 How to Cond
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A P P E N D I C E S 172 SAMPLE OBSE
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A P P E N D I C E S 174 APPENDIX 9B
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A P P E N D I C E S 176 MALAWI DATA
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A P P E N D I C E S 178 PROMOTIONAL
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