The Quick Count and Election Observation

C H A P T E R E I G H T : T H E E N D G A M E
122 Reviewing the Electoral Context
A discussion about managing quick count data should be preceded by a review
of the electoral context. While many key staff and board members may be
experts in election administration, electoral law, political campaigns, media
coverage or international cooperation, it can be difficult to keep abreast of
every development in every area. This is particularly true during the often
action-packed run-up to elections. It is, therefore, best to briefly discuss the
following areas concerning the electoral context:
• Administrative preparations—Are materials in place? Are polling station
officials trained? Are counting centers properly outfitted? Have election
officials held simulations to estimate the timing of voting procedures and
the duration of the official counting process? How will authorities release
the official election results (e.g., in real time on the Internet, at time intervals
as preliminary results, not until a percentage of results are in)? Have
authorities made any public statements regarding quick counts?
• The political environment—Are the candidates and parties expecting a fair
process, and are they likely to challenge the outcome in the event they
do not win? What election-day problems are the political contestants
expecting, if any? Do political parties trust the independent quick count?
Will they be doing their own quick counts?
• Polling data—How does the public view the process to date? What is the
likely turnout? Are there any reliable opinion polls on election results?
What is the status of public confidence in the process? Will citizens trust
the official results and/or the quick count?
• The international community—Are international observer organizations
present? Are any of them considered credible, and are any coordinating
with national observers? Will diplomatic missions also report on the
process? Are they prepared to play a role in providing external validation
that the election satisfies the necessary minimal conditions of a
genuine, democratic election?
Revisiting Quick Count Goals
It is important for groups to reaffirm the validity and appropriateness of their
original quick count goals before finalizing data use decisions. The purpose of
a quick count can impact how groups use results. Goals include:
• deterring fraud;
• detecting fraud;
• offering a timely forecast of results;
• instilling confidence in the electoral process;
• reporting on the quality of the electoral process;
• encouraging citizen participation;
• extending organizational reach and skills building; and
• setting the stage for future activities.