The Quick Count and Election Observation

THE QUICK COUNT AND ELECTION OBSERVATION
Consequently, a cautious data interpretation strategy calls for re-calculating
the margin of error based on the actual number of votes counted. Figure 5-8
illustrates this point.
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As the table shows, as turnout decreases, the margin of error increases. If turnout
is above 60 percent, margin of error will increase by approximately 0.02 percent
for every 10 percent drop in turnout. As turnout approaches 50 percent,
the increase in margin of error is much greater. A graph of the increase in margin
of error corresponding to decrease in turnout is presented in Figure 5-9.
0.6
FIGURE 5-9
MARGINS OF ERROR AND
TURNOUT
0.5
99% confidence level
Margin of Error
0.4
0.3
0.2
95% confidence level
0.1
0
100 90 80 70 60 50 40
Turnout
This chapter has laid out the broad statistical principles underlying quick counts
for a general audience, and it has outlined the statistical foundations of the
quick count methodology. Organizers should understand this methodology,
particularly the concepts of reliability and validity, as well as why a sample
must meet the criteria for randomness. This knowledge is vital to the design
of effective and reliable observer forms and training programs. It also underscores
the importance of preparing to retrieve data from every part of the
country—even the most remote areas.
Finally, this chapter also has considered the more technical matters of how
sample sizes can be calculated, and how such issues as levels of confidence,
margins of error and heterogeneity or homogeneity of the population shape
the sample. Most observer groups seek the services of a trained statistician to
construct and draw a sample and to analyze the data on election day. Civic
groups must realize that the quick count is a matter of applying statistical principles
to practical, unique circumstances where standard textbook assumptions
may not be satisfied. For that reason, the chapter outlines what are the most
common correction factors that should be taken into account when analysts
consider the interpretation of the data that are successfully retrieved on election
day.