27.10.2014 Views

The Quick Count and Election Observation

The Quick Count and Election Observation

The Quick Count and Election Observation

SHOW MORE
SHOW LESS

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

YUMPU automatically turns print PDFs into web optimized ePapers that Google loves.

THE QUICK COUNT AND ELECTION OBSERVATION<br />

8 <strong>and</strong> 10, the number in the middle of the observations is 7; there are three<br />

observations smaller than 7 <strong>and</strong> three observations with values that are greater<br />

than 7. <strong>The</strong> mode for this dataset, however, is 8 because 8 occurs most frequently.<br />

<strong>The</strong> arithmetic mean for this data set is 6.14. Statisticians usually<br />

report the mean, rather than the median or the mode, as the most useful measure<br />

of central tendency.<br />

67<br />

Measures of Dispersion<br />

A second feature of data concerns measures of dispersion, which indicate how<br />

widely, or how narrowly, observed values are distributed. From the example above,<br />

it is clear that any given data set will have an arithmetic mean. However, that mean<br />

provides no information about how widely, or narrowly, the observed values are<br />

dispersed. <strong>The</strong> following data sets have the same arithmetic mean of 3:<br />

2, 2, 3, 4, 4<br />

-99, -99, 3, 99, 99,<br />

<strong>The</strong>se two datasets have quite different distributions. One way to express the<br />

difference in the two datasets is to consider the range of numbers. In the first<br />

set, the smallest number is 2 <strong>and</strong> the largest number is 4. <strong>The</strong> resulting range,<br />

then, is 4 minus 2, or 2. In the second set, the smallest number is negative 99<br />

<strong>and</strong> the largest number is positive 99. <strong>The</strong> resulting range is positive 99 minus<br />

negative 99, or 198.<br />

Obviously, the different ranges of the two datasets capture one aspect of the<br />

fundamental differences between these two sets of numbers. Even so, the range<br />

is only interested in two numbers -- the largest <strong>and</strong> the smallest; it ignores all<br />

other data points. Much more information about the spread of the observations<br />

within the dataset can be expressed with a different measure, the variance.<br />

In non-technical terms, the variance expresses the average of all the distances<br />

between each observation value <strong>and</strong> the mean of all observation values. <strong>The</strong><br />

variance takes into account the arithmetic mean of a dataset <strong>and</strong> the number<br />

of observations, in addition to each of the datapoints themselves. As a result,<br />

it includes all the information needed to explain the spread of a dataset. <strong>The</strong><br />

variance for any set of observations can be determined in four steps:<br />

1. Calculate the arithmetic mean of the dataset.<br />

2. Calculate the distance between every data point <strong>and</strong> the mean, <strong>and</strong><br />

square the distance.<br />

3. Add all the squared distances together.<br />

4. Divide this by the number of observations.

Hooray! Your file is uploaded and ready to be published.

Saved successfully!

Ooh no, something went wrong!