The Quick Count and Election Observation

THE QUICK COUNT AND ELECTION OBSERVATION
Information Flows from the Field
The experiences of groups that have conducted quick counts provide two very
clear lessons about information flows, and each of these has important logistical
and analytic implications that need to be clearly understood.
First, on election day, there are very substantial fluctuations in the volume of
information flows from observers in the field to the data collection center. The
typical pattern, summarized in Figure 7-1, is based on real data gathered from
a recent Latin American election. In that particular case, the election law
required that polling station officials open the polling stations by 7:00 a.m.
Observers were asked to be present at the polling station by 6:15, some 45
minutes before polling stations were due to open. They were asked to report
their Form 1 data, the qualitative data, immediately after the first voter had
voted at their polling station.
There are very substantial
fluctuations in the
volume of information
flows from observers in
the field to the data
collection center.
103
50
FIGURE 7-1:
TYPICAL DISTRIBUTION OF
PHONE CALLS
Calls / 10 minutes
40
30
20
10
7:00 a.m.
8:00 a.m.
9:00 a.m. 10:00 a.m. 11:00 a.m.
This pattern of fluctuations in the volumes of information is essentially the
same for both the qualitative and the numeric data. At 7:00, the data collection
center receives no information at all. Information begins to trickle in to
the data collection center after the first thirty minutes, between 7:30 and 8:00.
The earliest data to arrive come from the most efficient polling stations and
where observers have easy access to telephones. By 8:30, the number of phone
calls into the data collection center has increased dramatically, and by 9:00
that trickle has turned into a deluge. In this particular case, calls were arriving
at the data collection center at a rate of some 55 calls per 10 minutes or 5.5
calls a minute. After that peak period, the volume of calls coming into the data
collection center starts to fall off, and then it slows down dramatically.
These uneven information flows present a logistical challenge. The task is to
develop a strategy that anticipates—and then effectively manages—the peak
volume of information intake. At issue are two questions. Does the group have
the communications capacity to accept all the calls during the peak period?
The task is to develop
a strategy that effectively
manages the
peak volume of information
intake.