SFPUC Wholesale Customer Water Demand Projections ... - BAWSCA

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SECTIONTWO Approach to Developing Water Demand Projections Figure 2-1 Schematic of DSS Model as Applied to SFPUC Wholesale Customers • Demographic Data – Published demographic data, such as housing, employment, and population estimates, provide information on wholesale customer service area population, jobs, and number of dwelling units by housing type (single-family or multifamily). Sources for this data include Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) Projections 2002 (ABAG 2002) and Census 2000 (U.S. Census Bureau 2002). • Standardized Water Use Data by Account Type – Nationally published information provides a reference for establishing normal ranges for customer-billing categories and end uses. The principal sources used for this study include publications on residential and commercial end uses from the American Water Works Association Research Foundation (AWWARF). • Fixture and Replacement Data – Data on water-using fixtures and replacement rates provide information on the type of fixtures being used in homes and businesses throughout the wholesale customer service area. Sources of fixture replacement data include Census 2000 (U.S. Census Bureau 2002), AWWARF, Alameda County Water District, California Urban Water Conservation Council (CUWCC), and East Bay Municipal Utility District. • Indoor/Outdoor Use – Water use is separated by indoor and outdoor use in the model. This is important for identifying how much water is used inside and outside the home, particularly because of the seasonality of outdoor use. This is accomplished by analyzing customerbilling data provided by wholesale customers. 2-3
SECTIONTWO Approach to Developing Water Demand Projections • Users Per Account – Existing population and employment data are used to establish the typical number of people using water under each account type for the base year. The sources for this information include ABAG, California Department of Finance, and Census 2000 (U.S. Census Bureau 2002). • Water Usage By End Use – The DSS model breaks water usage into end uses. Examples of typical end uses are water used in a single-family home to flush toilets or irrigate the garden. Recent studies, such as AWWARF’s Residential End Uses of Water (Mayer et al. 1999), provide detailed end-use data. • Fixture Models –Fixture models are used in the DSS model for modeling the base-year water-using fixture conditions (number of high-volume and lower-volume fixtures) and to forecast fixture improvements and replacements over time. The fixture models forecast water usage using a yearly fixture estimate which averages the fixture conditions in the existing base-year accounts and the new accounts. As fixture improvements and replacements are made each year, the estimate changes accordingly. The source for information used to build fixture models include Bay Area studies and AWWARF as listed above under fixture and replacement data. CALIBRATION OF WATER USE DATA As indicated in Figure 2-1, a water use data calibration process occurs during the development of base-year conditions. The calibration step verifies that the service area population is as close to the actual number of people living in the service area as possible and the per-capita and peremployee water uses are truly representative of the service area. The calibration process also makes adjustments to end uses and fixture models to account for all indoor water use and is further described in Section 3.4 of this report. This calibration is done for every customer-billing category, where applicable. Once the model is calibrated it is ready for forecasting. STEP 2 – WATER DEMAND FORECASTING • Population and Employment Forecasts –Population and employment forecasts are developed to establish future account growth (growth in the number of accounts) in the DSS model. Details on published forecast information and how it was used in the DSS model are given in Section 4.2 of this report. • Account Growth Projections – In addition to forecasting future water use and accounts, the DSS model uses projected growth in the number of accounts to estimate future water demands. Section 4.2 of this report discusses how growth in number of accounts is ascertained. • Final Demand Projections – Water demand projections are the result of applying the two DSS model steps: establishing base-year conditions and water demand forecasting. Final demand projections are provided for the base year 2001, and in 5-year increments from 2005 to 2030 in MGD. 2-4
Page 1 and 2: San Francisco Public Utilities Comm
Page 3 and 4: List of Tables, Figures, and Append
Page 5 and 6: List of Tables, Figures, and Append
Page 7 and 8: Glossary Account Average gal/day/ac
Page 9 and 10: Executive Summary INTRODUCTION In F
Page 11 and 12: Section 1 Introduction
Page 13 and 14: SECTIONONE Introduction retail serv
Page 15 and 16: SECTIONONE Introduction 1.3 GENERAL
Page 17 and 18: Section 2 Approach to Developing Wa
Page 19: SECTIONTWO Approach to Developing W
Page 23 and 24: SECTIONTHREE Establishing Base - Ye
Page 49 and 50: Section 4 Water Demand Forecasting
Page 51 and 52: SECTIONFOUR Water Demand Forecastin
Page 57 and 58: Section 5 Water Demand Projections
Page 59 and 60: SECTIONFIVE Water Demand Projection
Page 61 and 62: SECTIONFIVE Water Demand Projection
Page 63 and 64: Section 6 References
Page 65 and 66: SECTIONSIX References Hayward, City
Page 67 and 68: Appendix A Description of SFPUC Who
Page 69 and 70: Appendix A Description of SFPUC Who
Page 71 and 72:
Appendix A Description of SFPUC Who
Page 73 and 74:
Appendix B Summary of Customer-Spec
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Wholesale Customer Estero MID/Foste
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Wholesale Customer Milpitas, City o
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Appendix B Summary of Customer-Spec
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Appendix C1 Alameda County Water Di
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66.0 64.0 62.0 60.0 58.0 56.0 54.0
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City of Brisbane Water Service Area
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Appendix C3 Burlingame, City of
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5.00 4.95 4.90 4.85 4.80 4.75 4.70
Page 91 and 92:
Cal Water Bear Gulch Water Service
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Appendix C5 California Water Servic
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18.40 18.20 18.00 17.80 17.60 17.40
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Cal Water South San Francisco (SSF)
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Appendix C7 Coastside County Water
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4 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2
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City of Daly City Water Service Are
Page 105 and 106:
Appendix C9 East Palo Alto, City of
Page 107 and 108:
5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 City of
Page 109 and 110:
Estero Municipal Improvement Distri
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Appendix C11 Guadalupe Valley Munic
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1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Guadalu
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Base Year Average Use and Indoor Pe
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Appendix C13 Hillsborough, Town of
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4.00 3.90 3.80 3.70 3.60 3.50 Town
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Los Trancos Woods Northern, Blue Oa
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Appendix C15 Menlo Park, City of
Page 125 and 126:
5.2 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6
Page 127 and 128:
Mid Peninsula (Belmont) Water Servi
Page 129 and 130:
Appendix C17 Millbrae, City of
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3.7 3.65 3.6 3.55 3.5 3.45 3.4 3.35
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City of Milpitas Water Service Area
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Appendix C19 Mountain View, City of
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15 14.9 14.8 14.7 14.6 14.5 14.4 14
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North Coast County WD Water Service
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Appendix C21 Palo Alto, City of
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15.5 15.0 14.5 14.0 13.5 City of Pa
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Purissima Hills Water District Serv
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Appendix C23 Redwood City, City of
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14.5 14.0 13.5 13.0 12.5 12.0 11.5
Page 151 and 152:
City of San Bruno Water Service Are
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Appendix C25 San Jose, City of (por
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7 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.2 6
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City of Santa Clara Water Service A
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Appendix C27 Skyline County Water D
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0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 Skyline Co
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Stanford University Water Service A
Page 165 and 166:
Appendix C29 Sunnyvale, City of
Page 167 and 168:
28.0 27.0 26.0 25.0 24.0 23.0 City
Page 169 and 170:
Westborough County Water District S
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Appendix D Summary of SFPUC Wholesa
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Page 175:
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