SFPUC Wholesale Customer Water Demand Projections ... - BAWSCA

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5. Section 5 FIVE Water Demand Projections SECTIONFIVE Water Demand Projections 5.1 INTRODUCTION This section presents water demand projection results for each wholesale customer using the methodology described in this memo. Figure 5-1 and Table 5-1 summarize the demand projection results. Table 5-2 and Figure 5-2 provide additional summary data for the year 2030. The remainder of this section describes the concurrence process of the model input and outputs by the wholesale customers. 5.2 WATER DEMAND PROJECTION RESULTS FINAL DEMAND PROJECTIONS DSS model input and output were developed according to the methodology presented in Sections 3 and 4 of this report. Data obtained from each wholesale customer were combined with demographic data and water use parameters to establish and calibrate the base-year conditions. Population and employment projections were used to determine the future growth in accounts, and fixture models were used to reflect the impacts of plumbing codes, and natural replacement on accounts with applicable end uses (existing base-year accounts and new accounts). The effects of new future conservation programs in the wholesale customer service area are not included in these water demand projections. A companion report SFPUC Wholesale Customer Water Conservation Potential (URS 2004) provides an account of potential water conservation savings in the wholesale customer service area out to 2030. In addition, although future planned recycled water projects for which funding has already been set aside are incorporated into the final water demand projections, a technical memorandum, SFPUC Wholesale Customer Recycled Water Potential (RMC 2004), provides potential estimates on additional recycled water not yet funded in the wholesale customer service area. Figure 5-1 shows the total water demand projection as a sum of all wholesale customers. This sum is projected total water demand, not demand for SFPUC supplies. To gauge the effect of the plumbing codes and natural fixture replacement, each DSS model was rerun without the fixture models in place. These results were also summed to obtain a total water demand projection without fixture replacement as illustrated in Figure 5-1. The plumbing codes and natural fixture replacement represents a 7.8% water savings in 2030. 360 Total SFPUC Wholesale Customer Area Demand Projection Total Demand (MGD) 340 320 300 280 260 240 220 Without Plumbing Code With Plumbing Code 7.8% 200 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year Figure 5-1 Total SFPUC Wholesale Customer Area Demand Projection 5-1
SECTIONFIVE Water Demand Projections Table 5-1 lists the total water demand projection results for all of the SFPUC wholesale customers. Table 5-1 Total Water Demand Projections by SFPUC Wholesale Customer Demand Increase from 2001 Base Year Demand Projections (MGD) 2001 (MGD) 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 MGD % Wholesale Customer Alameda County Water District 51.1 53.2 54.5 55.5 56.6 57.9 59.3 8.20 16% Brisbane, City of 0.44 0.50 0.58 0.67 0.76 0.84 0.93 0.49 111% Burlingame, City of 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.9 0.12 3% CWS - Bear Gulch District 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.7 13.7 13.9 0.48 4% CWS - Mid Peninsula District 17.2 17.5 17.7 17.7 17.8 18.0 18.1 0.94 5% CWS - South San Francisco District 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.5 9.6 9.9 1.00 11% Coastside County Water District 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 0.63 25% Daly City, City of 8.7 8.7 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.1 0.44 5% East Palo Alto, City of 2.5 2.6 2.8 3.5 4.3 4.6 4.8 2.30 92% Estero MID/Foster City 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.8 0.98 17% Guadalupe Valley MID 0.32 0.39 0.47 0.56 0.64 0.72 0.81 0.49 153% Hayward, City of 19.3 20.8 22.2 23.3 25.0 26.8 28.7 9.40 49% Hillsborough, Town of 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 0.20 5% Los Trancos County Water District 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.03 32% Menlo Park, City of 4.1 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 0.61 15% Mid-Peninsula Water District 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 0.15 4% Millbrae, City of 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 0.17 5% Milpitas, City of 12.0 13.0 14.2 15.3 16.1 16.9 17.7 5.74 48% Mountain View, City of 13.3 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.6 14.8 1.53 12% North Coast County Water District 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 0.17 5% Palo Alto, City of 14.2 14.5 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.7 0.49 3% Purissima Hills Water District 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.3 1.12 51% Redwood City, City of 11.9 12.1 12.7 13.0 13.2 13.3 13.4 1.54 13% San Bruno, City of 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 0.07 2% San Jose, City of (portion of north San Jose) 5.2 5.4 5.7 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.5 1.31 25% Santa Clara, City of 25.8 28.0 29.7 30.9 31.9 32.9 33.9 8.10 31% Skyline County Water District 0.17 0.19 0.21 0.26 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.14 82% Stanford University 3.9 4.3 4.7 5.1 5.7 6.2 6.8 2.94 76% Sunnyvale, City of 24.8 25.0 25.3 25.6 25.9 26.3 26.8 1.99 8% Westborough Water District 0.99 1.00 0.95 0.93 0.91 0.89 0.88 -0.11 -11% Total 272 282 292 299 308 315 324 52 19% CWS – California Water Service (Company) MID – Municipal Improvement District Source: DSS Models Table 5-2 provides a breakdown of the average indoor and outdoor water usage for Single- Family Residential, Multi-Family Residential, and Non-Residential accounts for the 2030 water demand projections. 5-2
Page 1 and 2:
San Francisco Public Utilities Comm
Page 3 and 4:
List of Tables, Figures, and Append
Page 5 and 6:
List of Tables, Figures, and Append
Page 7 and 8: Glossary Account Average gal/day/ac
Page 9 and 10: Executive Summary INTRODUCTION In F
Page 11 and 12: Section 1 Introduction
Page 13 and 14: SECTIONONE Introduction retail serv
Page 15 and 16: SECTIONONE Introduction 1.3 GENERAL
Page 17 and 18: Section 2 Approach to Developing Wa
Page 19 and 20: SECTIONTWO Approach to Developing W
Page 21 and 22: SECTIONTWO Approach to Developing W
Page 23 and 24: SECTIONTHREE Establishing Base - Ye
Page 49 and 50: Section 4 Water Demand Forecasting
Page 51 and 52: SECTIONFOUR Water Demand Forecastin
Page 57: Section 5 Water Demand Projections
Page 61 and 62: SECTIONFIVE Water Demand Projection
Page 63 and 64: Section 6 References
Page 65 and 66: SECTIONSIX References Hayward, City
Page 67 and 68: Appendix A Description of SFPUC Who
Page 73 and 74: Appendix B Summary of Customer-Spec
Page 75 and 76: Wholesale Customer Estero MID/Foste
Page 77 and 78: Wholesale Customer Milpitas, City o
Page 79 and 80: Appendix B Summary of Customer-Spec
Page 81 and 82: Appendix C1 Alameda County Water Di
Page 83 and 84: 66.0 64.0 62.0 60.0 58.0 56.0 54.0
Page 85 and 86: City of Brisbane Water Service Area
Page 87 and 88: Appendix C3 Burlingame, City of
Page 89 and 90: 5.00 4.95 4.90 4.85 4.80 4.75 4.70
Page 91 and 92: Cal Water Bear Gulch Water Service
Page 93 and 94: Appendix C5 California Water Servic
Page 95 and 96: 18.40 18.20 18.00 17.80 17.60 17.40
Page 97 and 98: Cal Water South San Francisco (SSF)
Page 99 and 100: Appendix C7 Coastside County Water
Page 101 and 102: 4 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2
Page 103 and 104: City of Daly City Water Service Are
Page 105 and 106: Appendix C9 East Palo Alto, City of
Page 107 and 108: 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 City of
Page 109 and 110:
Estero Municipal Improvement Distri
Page 111 and 112:
Appendix C11 Guadalupe Valley Munic
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1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Guadalu
Page 115 and 116:
Base Year Average Use and Indoor Pe
Page 117 and 118:
Appendix C13 Hillsborough, Town of
Page 119 and 120:
4.00 3.90 3.80 3.70 3.60 3.50 Town
Page 121 and 122:
Los Trancos Woods Northern, Blue Oa
Page 123 and 124:
Appendix C15 Menlo Park, City of
Page 125 and 126:
5.2 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6
Page 127 and 128:
Mid Peninsula (Belmont) Water Servi
Page 129 and 130:
Appendix C17 Millbrae, City of
Page 131 and 132:
3.7 3.65 3.6 3.55 3.5 3.45 3.4 3.35
Page 133 and 134:
City of Milpitas Water Service Area
Page 135 and 136:
Appendix C19 Mountain View, City of
Page 137 and 138:
15 14.9 14.8 14.7 14.6 14.5 14.4 14
Page 139 and 140:
North Coast County WD Water Service
Page 141 and 142:
Appendix C21 Palo Alto, City of
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15.5 15.0 14.5 14.0 13.5 City of Pa
Page 145 and 146:
Purissima Hills Water District Serv
Page 147 and 148:
Appendix C23 Redwood City, City of
Page 149 and 150:
14.5 14.0 13.5 13.0 12.5 12.0 11.5
Page 151 and 152:
City of San Bruno Water Service Are
Page 153 and 154:
Appendix C25 San Jose, City of (por
Page 155 and 156:
7 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.2 6
Page 157 and 158:
City of Santa Clara Water Service A
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Appendix C27 Skyline County Water D
Page 161 and 162:
0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 Skyline Co
Page 163 and 164:
Stanford University Water Service A
Page 165 and 166:
Appendix C29 Sunnyvale, City of
Page 167 and 168:
28.0 27.0 26.0 25.0 24.0 23.0 City
Page 169 and 170:
Westborough County Water District S
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Appendix D Summary of SFPUC Wholesa
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Page 175:
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