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European Union. This could in the long run facilitate the development of a
common format for agreeing principles of free trade from the Pacific to the
Atlantic. Beyond this, some optimistic pundits argue for an even wider
integration – a Great Eurasian Union including China, India and even Iran
(Toma, 2012).
POST-ISAF AFGHANISTAN – IMPLICATIONS FOR REGIONAL
SECURITY IN CENTRAL ASIA
Despite the withdrawal of coalition forces from Afghanistan in 2014 a significant
foreign military presence will remain in the country. The US will retain key
military installations, combat aircraft, unmanned aircraft and assets for technical
and human intelligence as well as Special Forces units. The government of
Afghanistan in Kabul receives significant amounts of weapons and military
equipment and will not lack ammunition. The Afghan National Security Forces
(ANSF), i.e. the police and the army, are therefore assessed to be able to handle
the Taliban, who without aviation and heavy machinery are unlikely to be able to
carry out decisive military operations but will be limited to low-intensity
guerrilla operations. The American assets that remain are likely to continue to be
the primary target for Afghan opposition forces.
The Taliban forces are likely to keep on fighting the foreign military presence
and will hardly be able to expand operations into neighbouring Central Asian
republics. There are, however, Islamist fighters with citizenship from Central
Asian states in Afghanistan. A potential threat is that some of them may apply
the combat skills and experience gained in Afghanistan at home. The CSTO is
preparing for such scenarios and will be ready in 2014 to repel occasional attacks
by small groups of Taliban.
The main potential for instability in Central Asia lies not in Afghanistan but
within the Central Asian states themselves. The reasons for this are their high
levels of poverty, unemployment, corruption and poor governance. Obviously,
the CSTO is not intended to handle such threats. Authorities in the Central Asian
republics will exaggerate the danger of extremism from Afghanistan and try to
connect it to the political opposition in each country. Central Asian leaders will
probably try to harness the CSTO’s support to increase their own legitimacy in
fighting domestic opposition.
The widespread notion that the Central Asian republics are interested in using
economic projects to integrate Afghanistan into the region is exaggerated. It
reflects the wishes of the West, rather than the aspirations of the East. The
peoples of Central Asia are more interested in isolating Afghanistan, which lives
in a different era, with an alien culture and different values. Infrastructure
projects between the Central Asian republics and Afghanistan are limited to
Uzbekistan and Tajikistan and the neighbouring provinces of Afghanistan where
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