foir_3880

FOI-R--3880--SE
7 Afghanistan and the Central Asian
states: reflections on the evolving
relations after 2014
Said Reza Kazemi
This chapter discusses how state-to-state ties between Afghanistan and the
former Soviet republics of Central Asia will evolve after 2014, given the ongoing
transition in Afghanistan and a probable decline in the interest and engagement
of the Western-led international community in the neighbourhood. It tentatively
argues that Central Asian governments, and particularly those of Tajikistan and
Uzbekistan, which remain the most closely affected by events in Afghanistan,
might increasingly resort to adopting defensive behaviour rather than engaging
in meaningful regional cooperation, at least for the time being. The relationship
between the Afghan and Central Asian governments is certainly varied. Finally,
one should keep in mind whether and how any further drastic deterioration in
Afghanistan’s politico-security situation would affect Central Asia, and
conversely whether and how any potential Central Asian turmoil would impact
on Afghanistan.
Although relations between Afghanistan and the Central Asian states are deeply
rooted in common geography, history and culture (see, e.g., Shalinsky, 1993;
Lee, 1996) where non-state actors play a not insignificant role, this chapter looks
at the intergovernmental relations between Afghanistan and the five former
Soviet republics of Central Asia. The focus will be on the period up to and after
2014 – the year during which Afghanistan’s crucial transition (at the security,
political and economic levels) is supposed to take place. More specifically, it
looks at how the growing Afghan–Central Asian state-to-state ties, particularly
since 2001 – the year the Taliban were removed from power as a result of the
US-led military intervention in Afghanistan – are evolving.
In addition to these thematic (state-to-state ties) and temporal (the period after
2014) focuses, this chapter is also focused geographically, in at least two
respects. First, it concentrates particularly on relations between mainly northern
Afghanistan and each of Afghanistan’s three direct Central Asian neighbours,
particularly Tajikistan and Uzbekistan – the states in Central Asia that continue
to be most closely connected to developments in Afghanistan. Second, it briefly
discusses the developing interstate connections between Afghanistan and the two
non-immediate Central Asian neighbours, namely Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.
75